Super Tuesday; Super Opinions

Super Tuesday was the most thrilling and shocking Super Tuesday in a long time. The breakthrough of Donald Trump has taken the nation by storm. It has surprised pudits and bucked trends. There is no way to predict what might happen because this type of candidate has never been seen before. I was anxiously awaiting the results to see what would happen. I predicted with some accuracy to my facebook friends that Trump would previal in most states except Texas. I was correct because Trump won 8 states inculding close victories in Virginia and Vermont. Ted Cruz won Alaska, Texas and a shocking victory in Oklahoma. On the Democratic side, Clinton won 9 states sweeping Sanders’ 4 and increasing her delegate margin. I find both of the primary races on each side to be so interesting. In this article, I want to talk about my opinion of Super Tuesday and prehaps predict some what may happen next. I also want to link the coolest delegate and poll watcher interactive made by fivethirtyeight. This interactive shows you an indepth look at how the candidates are doingand in polls of primary states and their delegate count. I would recommend that you see this interactive and explore it. I will also be referring to fivethirtyeight’s interactive throughout this post. It works as a great guide to see what has happened and what may happen in the future.

Let’s start with the orange rich guy, Donald Trump. So like I previously stated that Trump had won 8 states which equaled to about 254 delegates to add to his total which now stands at 336. Trump’s success was not seen in the beginning and many have been skeptical including me. But now its legitimate. Trump has bucked the trends. Usually a non-political background dooms a presidency. Just look at Ben Carson, he peaked in November and now he won’t be in the next debate. The interesting thing about Trump is his tactics seem to be more savvy than the media reports. Everyone knows about his racist rants and insults against women. However, that narrative is why the media is always covering him. You never know what he will say next. But I realize in listening to his speech last night with a terrified Chris Christie behind him, that Trump is pursuing a general election strategy. An analyst on tv noted it first but it got me thinking about his actions of late and in the past. Depsite being heavily attacked by other candidates, Trump always responded with a worst insult. But in the last few debates, he has been focusing more on Hillary Clinton and taking down her policies and record. In this speech last night, he spent time doing that same thing. Trump is clearly smart enough to realize with a strong lead going into mid march that he needs to start working on Clinton now. Because its likely that he will face her in the election. I say strong lead, but in reality I think its a lot closer. Let me explain why.

The republican race is interesting because of Trump and the candidates that he’s running against. Ted Cruz has won 3 states and is considered to be the most conservative candidate left. Marco Rubio is the essisential establishment candidate that can appael to anyone and has won one state, Minnesota. You also might forget about Ben Carson and John Kaisch. The race as it stands right now actually favors Trump because the delegates and votes are split between five candidates. Meaning you need less votes to win. Obviously with Trump being so racist and sexist at times it means he may scare off some voters. There’s actually a new super pac that wants to stop Trump from getting the nomination but I think its a little late. The first thing is that they need to eliminate all candidates except the strongest one. That is going to be tough. I believe ideally the candidate to face off with Trump would be Cruz and with 3 states. The super pac needs to put all their weight on Cruz in order to beat Trump. I think its possible but it might be too late. With the next round of primaries next week, with the likes of Florida and Ohio. The problem is if Trump can win Florida, he gets 99 delegates and the second place winner gets nothing. So Florida could easily decide a nominee. I will be watching carefully to see if anything happens because it could be interesting.

On a short side note, there is a growing list of celebrities who say they will leave the country if Trump is elected. I wish them good luck and goodbye. Canada has different problems than here doesn’t mean its better. Plus I don’t understand because if Trump is elected then usually a democratic congress is elected. So President Trump won’t have much luck doing anything with Congress.

In democratic side, its pretty simple to breakdown. Clinton has a YUGE lead on Sanders. Try 596 to 399. Nearly two hundred delegates. The problem for Sanders, his social justice appael just doesn’t work. Unfortunately, Clinton can lie and cheat all she wants but is still trusted by minorities. Meanwhile Sanders who means well and doesn’t seem to be racist in anyway, can’t seem to connect with black voters. I have a few thoeries but my main one is that being a white male, socialist isn’t really what black voters are looking for. Hillary has a good record with black voters so by default she seems to edging Sanders out. As for the future, I don’t see Sanders ever really catching up because I think Hillary will win the biggest delegate states like New York, Ohio, and California.

So my take on Super Tuesday is that the general election will be Trump vs. Clinton. Probably one of the most unlikely presidential races to
ever occur. The first woman to ever be nominated for president in the US. Trump will be the first ever non-career politcian to be elected. Although a historic race, I feel like there should still be a third party candidate. If you have read any of my past posts you would find I don’t favor either of the candidates. I feel like there is a gray area in politics between left and right. That’s right, I want a libertarian candidate. I think the race would be much more interesting with another candidate up there. The problem for me and this country is that libertarians are unpopular among the media and voters. Many assume its just anarchy or fence sitting but its actually a fine line between the two extremes. Contrary to preception, a libertarian fire department where you put out your own fires or a libertarian intersection with no stop lights or signs is just a joke. There’s a point where there is too much regulation in government. Usually too much means advantages for the private sector. Libertarians want just enough regulation to keep special interests at bay and keep citizens free of government control. Everyone should consider the libertarian point of view.

Thanks for reading!

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