Featured

Red Sox Makes MOVES! TRADING SALE FOR GRISSOM!

Need to learn how to jersey swap bro

Hello Viewers, the second baseball video of 2024 is here! Watch NOW!

Check out my social media page!

Featured

YAMAMOTO TO DODGERS FOR 12 years! How Does Kodai Senga impact this deal?

Answer coming in 12 years.

Hello, enjoy the first video of 2024! Happy New Year!

Check out my social media page!

Featured

Offseason Video 2 Tyler Glasnow to Dodgers and Jung Hoo Lee To SF Giants!

Grandson of the Wind

More offseason moves to recap! Thanks for watching. Check out my social media page.

Featured

BASEBALL IS BACK! OFFSEASON MOVES!

Baseball is back!

Hello, This week I recap some moves of this offseason. Enjoy!

Check out my social media page! Thanks for watching!

Featured

NBA IN SEASON TOURNAMENT KNOCKOUT ROUND PREVIEW

Playoffs?

Another update on the NBA In Season Tournament. Stay tuned for the last video after the winner is decided.

Check out my social media page, thanks for watching.

Featured

St. Louis Cardinals: Pitching Problem

Moustache Included

Hello Viewers! This is the second part to figuring out why the Cardinals went from First to Last in consecutive years. In this video, I discuss starting pitcher Miles Mikolas and relief pitcher Giovanny Gallegos. Enjoy!

Thanks for watching, check out my social media page!

Featured

NBA In Season Tournament Group Play: Who’s winning?

Fight Not Included

Hello Viewers! This week I decided to bring back some NBA action. The Tournament is in the middle of group play. So in this video I go over the standings and try to predict where certains might end up. Enjoy.

Thanks for watching, check out my social media page.

Featured

St. Louis Cardinals Slump: First to Worst

YOUNNNNGGG CARDINALS

Hello Viewers, back to baseball this week. In this video I tried to do something different by just winging it without a script. Let me know if its better or worse. I’m going to keep to trying to innovate and try new things until I find something I really like. Hope you enjoy this video.

Thanks for watching!

Check out my social media page.

Featured

NBA IN SEASON TOURNAMENT: HOW CAN WE FIX IT?

Not Baseball

I made a bit of different video this week. I had some opinions about the NBA’s new in season tournament and wanted to put out my thoughts on it. Hopefully its just as enjoyable as baseball, which will return next week!

Thanks for watching, check out my social media page.

Featured

TEXAS RANGERS GET HOT

Jacob DeGrom is hurt

The Rangers stole a good number of their team from the Mets. That’s why their good. I’m kidding, in this video I take a look at Corey Seager and starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery to see how their performances lifted the Rangers to face the Astros in the ALCS! Tune in to find out how these guys have been difference makers! Enjoy the video!

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

PRESEAON PREDICTION REVEAL PART 2

Can you believe I got two teams exactly right?

Hello Viewers! This week is a continuation of the preseason predictions I did at the beginning of the season. The Top 15 is a lot worse than the bottom 15. Especially the top 10 is a complete mess. I put a few cool easter eggs relating to a certain former Twins Player, see if you can spot them. Enjoy the video, come back next week for another interesting video!

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

PRESEASON PRECDICTION REVEAL!

How many did I guess right?

You’ve all been waiting for my preseason prediction results video! Here it is. I made a chart with all my predictions for each team. In this video I review how I did in comparison. I guess two records for each team a best record and a worst record. You’ll find out if I predicted spot on or if I was totally off base. This is only part 1. Tune in next week for part 2.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference for the statistics!

Featured

VLOG: JOINING THE 40/40 CLUB; RONALD ACUNA JR.

I seriously hated making this, why is it good?

This week I’ve decided to drop a BANGER video on Ronald Acuna Jr’s major accomplishment of achieving a 40/40 season. Unfortunately for me, I very much dislike him and the Braves. Fortunately for you, the video actually came out very good and it’s almost enjoyable to watch. You’re welcome.

Thanks for Watching! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

VLOG: Mark Canha: ICE COLD BEER TO HOT SAUSAGE

Joke in title isn’t explained

Hello again, this week another fresh video on Mark Canha. I thought Canha deserved some love for his play lately and the type of the person he is. The audio is a bit weird on this one but I think its still a solid video. I will be reviewing my preseason predictions soon after the season ends so look out for that.

Thanks for watching!

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics!

Featured

VLOG: THE JUSTIN STEELE SHOW

I wish Narco was the background music.

Hello Viewers and Non-Viewers! Finally back to back good videos. I hadn’t heard of Justin Steele until recently. But I looked at his stats and said holy shit, he’s Edwin Diaz opposite twin. So I obviously had to jump on a video about him, comparing him to Diaz. This Steele kid could win a Cy Young for real tho, keep an eye on his stats.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

VLOG: TRADE DEADLINE MASTERCLASS

Watch this shit

Hello Viewers and Non-Viewers. Welcome to this week’s video! I missed a week due to writers block and my birthday. Its possible there is a correlation here. However, this video in my opinion is different but really good. Let me know what you think and if I should do more content like this!

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

VLOG: Corbin Carroll: Fastest Phenom

Hello Viewers! I’m back again with another video on Corbin Carroll. If you haven’t heard about this kid then you have living under a rock for the season. Although he’s cooled off in recent months, this kid’s ability to play baseball is down right impressive. Watch the video and enjoy!

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

VLOG: Marcus Stroman: The Workhorse

Watch the video, like and subscribe to the channel

Hello again folks, I’m back with another video. This one is quite high quality in my opinion. Stroman has been doing very well with the Cubs. I had written this video originally in May when he was the number one pitcher in the league. I had to edit it slightly but the narrative is the same. Sit back, relax and enjoy the video.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

Vlog: Andrew McCutchen Future HOF’er

I’m back with another vlog on Andrew McCutchen. I think this video came out pretty good. Please watch it and leave a comment and tell me what you think!

Thanks for watching! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

Trevor Williams Innings Eater: VLOG

I know that it’s been awhile since I posted literally anything at all. For that I apologize because life just took me for a crazy ride for about two months. All of that happened in the past and I am back to making baseball content.

Before my life took over, I was working on yet another video. This time I discuss Trevor Williams and his uncanny ability to eat innings in various game circumstances. Unfortunately the audio quality isn’t the greatest but hopefully the visuals will be even better than the last one.

Sit back and enjoy!

Watch the video!

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics!

Featured

Not Your Typical DH, Daniel Vogelbach VLOG

Hello Dear Readers!

I am excited to bring you a new format of blog post, A relatively short video on an interesting player! I have some video making experience but don’t judge too hard because I suck at talking. However, if you have any tips please comment them. (Unfortunately I had subtitles in some sections in the video but they don’t appear to have worked..sorry will figure it out for next time) Without any further ado, here’s the “first” vlog:

Watch it and comment your thoughts!

As always, Thank you for watching/reading. Expect more of these videos because I’m trying to improve my video editing skills. Also I like doing these. Make sure to follow and subscribe! Thanks again!

Featured

Player Highlight: Tampa Bay Rays Outfielder Randy Arozarena 

Randy Arozarena is having a great start to the season coming off his electric World Baseball Classic appearance. Arozarena is one of the better upcoming players in the league. His story involves him leaving his original home country of Cuba to play baseball in Mexico. He plays baseball good enough to be scouted by Major league scouts and eventually gets to the Major leagues. He has a breakout performance in the 2020 season playoffs. In the World Baseball Classic, Arozarena showed off his personality. He played for Team Mexico because he DM’d the Mexican President asking if he could play for them. The President saw to it that Arozarena and his family were able to get citizenship in Mexico and in return Arozarena would represent Mexico. Arozarena showed off his clutch hitting and amazing glove. Now let’s see what he’s done this season so far. 

Before we get too deep, let me just note that it’s 17 games into the season. So all his averages are slightly higher than his career averages. However, when you see his counting stats, 3 doubles, 4 homeruns, 18 RBI and 2 stolen bases, it confirms what the inflated averages are telling you. Arozarena is absolutely raking. It’s too early to say it’s his year but if he keeps this up, he’s on track for a better season than last year. 

When looking at his ratios, you can see that Arozarena has just been mashing the ball like no tomorrow. This is evidenced by his significantly lower walk rate and homerun rate. Nearly 2 percent down and 5 percent down on his career averages. Once again the small sample size should be noted here, and his ratios should creep back to near his career average.

In this run value chart from Baseball Savant, I’ve highlighted the top four pitches he sees the most. You can get a feel for how he’s handling each pitch this year compared to 2022. For example, the fastball is by far his best pitch to hit. This was the case last year as well. Another example of a minor but still early on change is the sinker. Last year, he had -1 Run value on the sinker and this year it’s 1. He’s only seen 51 sinkers in 2023 so far compared to 425 last year. But the change seems to be the 4 percent whiff percentage and 15 percent K percentage. It means that he’s not swinging over/under this pitch as much as last year. Obviously still early, but it’s possible he’s just seeing the sinker better this year.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1udQhTzvoa3Z1_23hTaQSl9D6Cd52QV46/view?usp=share_link

Above is an example of Arozarena hitting a sinker from the bottom of the zone out of the park. 

I think that Arozarena is one of the more electric players in the league. It’s also true and according to the percentile rankings by Baseball Savant that Arozarena is one of the best pure hitters in the league. I think Arozarena is set to have a great season and will definitely be leading the charge for the Tampa Bay Rays this season and beyond.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page. Be sure to tune in on Thursday for a Vlog going live on my Youtube Channel instead of the regular post!

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics!

Featured

Player Highlight: Wade Miley

Wade Miley is a starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2023. Miley has been around the league for a long time, 2023 will be his 12th season in the MLB. The Brewers picked up Milley as a 5th starter/ depth piece. The signing will likely be an underrated/overlooked one. Miley has both good and bad seasons. He’s played for 8 different teams including the Brewers in 2018. I want to look at Miley’s career stats more focusing on when he was good. He’s had six seasons with an ERA under 4 including in 2018. The Brewers already have one of the better rotations in the league as well. So what does Milley potentially add?

You can see that it’s been a rollercoaster ride for Milley. The roughest part of his career from 2014 to 2017 was a struggle never having his ERA dip below 4. Miley is at his best when he keeps the walks to a minimum and does not allow many homers. Although it was only 16 games, Miley’s last stint in Milwaukee was his best season to that point. He kept the good going by keeping an ERA under 4 in 33 starts with the Astros. He had two up and down seasons in Cincinnati, then put good numbers in a short stint with the Chicago Cubs. The past two seasons in 2021 and 2022 it seems like Miley is trending towards a great season. But we need to dig deeper to see what a great season looks like in his pitch mix. 

There are a lot of numbers here, but this Run Value per pitch chart from Baseball Savant, shows you Miley’s most effective pitches from 2018-2022, excluding 2020 because we can forget the shortened season. You can see plainly that Miley’s changeup and cutter are the key to his success. You can also see that in 2022, Miley didn’t command those pitches like he had previously. Miley’s fastball has also become better in the past few seasons. In a lot of these seasons, his best K% and put away % pitch was his changeup. So let’s look at that changeup more in depth.

These charts are spin and movement charts from baseball savant. The green bar represents the changeup which has the most spin and movement of any of his pitches. The brown bar is his cutter which has just as much spin and similar amounts of movement. Obviously spin and movement matter but if you don’t have command or control then it doesn’t matter. 

The brownish dot chart represents the location of Miley’s cutters. The greenish dot chart represents the location of Miley’s changups. You can see part of the formula for Miley, He throws more Cutters than changups usually but the Cutters put the hitter’s eye to outside of the plate for right handed batters and inside to lefties. Then he might mix in one of his other pitches, fastball, curveball, sinker, slider (not shown) to work the count. Finally to get the batter to strikeout or get out, Miley will use his changeup to the inside and low on right handed batters or outside and low for lefties. Obviously the order of pitches will vary. But generally, the Cutter is a set up pitch and his changeup is the put away. If Miley can get back to using these effectively, I think the Brewers have a solid fifth starter. 

Wade Miley’s projections from Baseball Reference are shown above. This would be a fairly decent season from Miley. Although I think he is capable of doing even better. I think they put the HR/9 too high, Miley doesn’t give up the long ball, the past 3 seasons he’s kept it under 1. Otherwise I think everything else is a fair guess. Overall, I like Wade Miley to help the Brewers get back to the postseason for 2023. 

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics!

Featured

Player Highlight: Nicky Lopez

At the time of writing, Nicky Lopez is making some noise with his offensive play for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic. (More content coming on WBC) Nicky Lopez is an American born of Italian descent infielder, mostly shortstop and second base. He regularly plays for the Kansas City Royals. Lopez isn’t a household name by any means. We’ll talk first about his lack of offense but then we’ll get into what Nicky Lopez makes his money on, his defense. Lopez only has four years of MLB experience. He came up in 2019. If Nicky could get his offense game anywhere near his defense game, he might be considered one of the better shortstops in the game. 

When you look Lopez’ stats there is only one good offensive year, 2021. Lopez was not able to match that 2021 performance in 2022. The more significant jump was from 2020 to 2021. His batting average jumped .99 points from .201 to .300. His OBP went from .286 to .365 and his slugging went from .266 to .378. His OPS went from .552 to .744. Very dramatic but in the context of the league, he went from well below average to very much average. I would hope for Lopez to perform in a similar way to 2021 for 2023. Lopez is a lefty batter, so do the shift restrictions help him?

As you can see the shift restrictions won’t help him as teams barely shift on him. I’m guessing because he’s a huge threat to hit the ball hard or far. Overall Nicky Lopez isn’t an offensive guy. However his defense is the opposite story.

This chart from fangraphs is Nicky Lopez’ advanced fielding metrics. I’d like to draw your attention to OAA and RAA. Outs Above Average and Runs Above Average are the most trusted metrics for defense. Lopez rates out very well in nearly every position. Particularly at shortstop, his defense would be considered elite. Baseball savant has Lopez in 98th percentile. Surprisingly Lopez isn’t known for his strong arm, only in the 38th percentile. As you can imagine Lopez’s overall WAR is 4.0 according to bWAR. Here is a breakdown of how that was earned:

In a bit of a surprising twist, that 2021 season was by far his best season as most of the WAR comes from that offensive breakout. LIke I said at the beginning, If Lopez can develop some offense then he’s a top tier shortstop. 

Here are the projections for Nicky Lopez in 2023. I think they definitely put him somewhere between his normal and 2021. But personally, I’m hoping for something like .300 BA, .350 OBP, .430 SLG, .750 OPS. With his defense and that kind of stat line, the Royals would have one of the better defensive shortstops in the league. 

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

Player Highlight: Bryce Harper

Everybody knows who Bryce Harper is, because he’s one of the best baseball players alive today. When Harper’s career ends in 10 or so years, he will likely end up in the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. But what makes Bryce Harper so great? Why is he considered to be such a special talent? Well if his list of accomplishments don’t tell you something then stats probably won’t convince you. So far Harper has: 7x All Star, Rookie of the Year, 2x Silver Slugger, NLCS MVP, and 2x MVP. The next logical step here is to look at his career stats. Just before we do that, Harper was a Washington National and is currently a Philadelphia Phillie. Harper is another player who I’d love to have on my team but currently can’t stand when he faces the Mets. 

The first thing you’ll notice about his batting stats is the amount of bold numbers. Those indicate he led the league in those categories. One of the underrated bold numbers is his walks both regular and intentional. These indicate both plate discipline and respect from opposing pitchers. Harper is known as one of the most complete baseball players to ever play the game. You’ll notice he consistently keeps his on base percentage near or over .400 He also manages to keep his slugging over .400. He rarely had an average season according OPS+, his worst only at 111. His two highest OPS at 198 and 179 are not MLB records as Aaron Judge had an OPS of 211 this year. The last thing you’ll notice is his award column is full of awards. As I previously mentioned, 2 MVPs won and two top ten finishes in MVP voting. 

This Run Value by pitch chart from Baseball Savant shows you a representation of success against different kinds of pitches. We’re comparing Harper’s 2021 season with an OPS+ of 179 and his 2022 season with an OPS+ of 145. Both are elite seasons but you can tell by both the bold numbers in 2021 and the higher run values in 2021 that it was significantly better. Harper kept most consistent with his highest run values on 4 seam fastballs, sliders, and changeups. In 2022, the other pitches had some drop off. This chart also can tell which pitches Harper was most likely to strike out on. For example, in 2021 it was the curveball (slurve is higher but only 3 pitches) at 36 percent. In 2022, it was also the curveball with a lower percentage. The main takeaway is that Harper just crushes most pitches and more importantly he doesn’t miss a swing. 

These swing take charts from Baseball Savant are a neat visual of Harper’s zone discipline and his ability to make opposing pitchers pay in certain parts of the zone and outside of it. The overall run value between 2021 and 2022 was 22 runs. The main differences came in the heart and chase zones. Similar to Acuna. Jr, Harper shadow zone is one of weaker zones. Harper’s ability to hit in the chase zone in 2021 was incredible with +25 runs and 4-5 percent above league average. Like all great hitters, Harper hammers the heart of the plate. 

To conclude, I don’t see Bryce Harper slowing down anytime soon. Obviously for 2023, he won’t be returning to the field til mid-summer from an injury. But once his impact on the Phillies will be more dramatic for one player than for one player on most other teams. Perhaps Harper’s only comparable value to the team is Aaron Judge. There are obviously only a handful of guys in MLB that can do what Harper can.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

Featured

Player Highlight: Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. plays for the Atlanta Braves. As a Mets fan, he’s not my favorite player to face off against. Acuna possesses the skills and talent to be one of the better MLB players in the league. Before his devastating injury in 2021, he was on track to be a 40/40 guy. Of course if you aren’t familiar, 40/40 is 40 home runs and 40 steals in one season. He came close in 2019 with 41 HRs and 37 steals. Acuna is more than just a great hitter, he is a really good fielder. If you look at his fielding this past year, you can tell his knee injury was holding him back. In this post, we’re going to look at just how good Acuna can be and what to expect this year in 2023!

Acuna came into the league pretty much producing at an MVP level. His .917 OPS, .293 BA and .552 SLG really give you an idea about what Acuna is capable of. The average based numbers go down slightly in 2019 because Acuna plays 40 more games. However, his counting stats are league leading in multiple categories including runs and steals. We can safely ignore the 2020 season because it’s only 46 games but nonetheless a stellar performance. In 2021, before the injury that ended his season, Acuna was on pace for a 40/40 season with 24 HR and 17 steals in 82 games approximately half the season left to go. Last season in 2022, Acuna underperformed and it’s likely due to the injury. He tore an ACL or PCL which can often take up to 2 years to fully recover from. 

These two charts are Run value swing/take charts from baseball savant. It may look complicated but the main takeaway is that Acuna wasn’t the same hitter at the plate before and after his knee injury in ‘21. The bottom chart is 2019, one of his best seasons. Overall +44 run value with the majority of the runs coming from the ‘chase’ zone at +29. His least best zone was the shadow zone at -11 runs. This is a representation of Acuna’s strengths and weaknesses in the zone and outside of it. In 2022, Acuna took a significant dive with a total of +14 runs. He remained strong in the ‘chase’ zone but was very weak in both shadow and heart zones with 0 and -11 runs respectively. Acuna will likely re-find the magic in 2023.

Before we conclude my favorite player to hate, we have to look at his defense. The knee injury vastly affected Acuna’s ability to move in the outfield. We want to look specifically at the differences in his previous seasons with regard to OAA and RAA. (Outs Above Average and Runs Above Average) These are the most reliable defensive metrics. As you can see Acuna was about average, you can see in 2019 that he struggled. But in 2022, you see a major departure from his normal. He registered -5 OAA and -4 RAA. I have to assume that he will vastly improve this 2023.

Overall, I think Acuna is set to have a possible record setting season much to my chagrin. I hope to see him return to form but I hope my Mets prevail over the Braves. Let’s Go Mets! 

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

Featured

Player Highlight: Seattle Mariners Ace Luis Castillo

In this new series called Player Highlight, I will be choosing some random players throughout MLB to showcase their career stats and tell you how great they are. There are so many great MLB players that if they aren’t on your team you might never hear about. The first player is Luis Castillo. Castillo is a right handed starting pitcher for the Seattle Mariners. Castillo is a two time All Star. Castillo came over from the Cinnicinati Reds during the trade deadline in 2022. Castillo is one of MLB’s bright young pitching stars. Castillo had some up and down seasons before he really started to show that his stuff was elite at the MLB level. 

As you can see Castillo fluctuated early in his career, although he was able to keep his ERA below 4 in every season but 2018. (later we’ll dig deeper) After a rough 2021, Castillo was able to manage an ERA below 3. Castillo is a power pitcher with an ability to also get ground ball outs.  When he is at his best, you can see that in his low FIP, however his WHIP has suffered in years when his control wasn’t the best. At times, he’s been prone to walking a lot of batters. Setting aside all of that, when you look at his ERA+, he’s been just above or well above league average for a starting pitcher in every season except that bad 2018. Let’s look at how Castillo has transformed over the years.

In order to see how Castillo managed to take his 4.30 ERA in 2018 and turn it into a 3.40 in 2019, we have to see his pitch mix. You’ll under the number # of pitches how the amount of fastballs and changeups changes. In 2018, Castillo threw mostly fastballs but if you look at his put away % and Whiff % those are lower on his fastball at 12.3% and 19.6% respectively. This is compared to his changeup which had put away % and Whiff % of 30.7 and 42.8 respectively.  Obviously Castillo noticed this trend or a coach pointed it out to him so he changed up how much he uses each pitch in 2019. In 2019, his fastball and changeup were thrown nearly equally with only about 80 pitch difference. The put away % and Whiff % remained similarly effective for the changeup but still ineffective for the fastball. (Fastball whiff % did improve 8 percent) But 2019 was not Castillo’s best year, that was 2022. 

In 2021, Castillo Slider became much better but he still relied on the fastball/changeup combo. In 2022, Castillo really leaned into his fastball, which turned in the lowest WOBA of his career at .203. According to statcast, Castillo’s fastball velocity was in the 93rd percentile. Obviously there is more to pitching than just pitch mix, there’s location and movement. So to conclude, I want to preface his fastballs’ location and movement charts. Castillo’s velocity was earning him a lot of strikeouts and that’s due to his location. As for chase rate and fastball spin rate, Castillo only ranks in the 54th percentile and 60th percentile respectively. But you can see where batters chased his fastball according to this chart. In terms of spin rate you can see his fastball probably has the least spin of all his pitches. But the movement of his fastball on a similar par to his sinker. I think that Castillo has finally found a formula to keep striking out batters at a high rate but also limiting his walks. Castillo will definitely be key to the Mariner’s success in 2023. 

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the charts and statistics!

Featured

Worth it: Rafael Devers Signs Extension with Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have had one of the most confusing offseasons in recent memory. They let their Top 5 star shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) walk in free agency to the San Diego Padres. They signed a few mid-range, but good free agents in Kenley Jansen and Japanese baseball star Masataka Yoshida. In a bit of a head-scratcher, they spent more money (115 million dollars) on Yoshida than they offered to Bogaerts last year (90 million dollars). Now the Red Sox decide to listen to their fan base and lock up Rafael Devers. They first avoided arbitration then extended Devers for 11 years and 331 million dollars. Before we look at any statistics, I’ll go out on a limb and say its worth it. 

Rafael Devers is a third baseman who bats left and throws right. He’s 26 years old with 5 years of MLB experience. He’s spent his whole career with the Red Sox and with this extension will be a Red Sox for life. Before we loook at his statistics which are actually very good especially for this past season where the Red Sox finished in last place in the AL East. We need to look at his production in their lineup. He was a bright spot. Take a look: 

Devers led the team in multiple categories including OPS+, HR, and RBI. He was the Red Sox best hitter by a lot. With the exception of 2020, Devers has been slowly improving and becoming a top tier third baseman with his bat. If you look at personal stats season by season you can see the slow improvement. He’s only 26 years old which is usually considered an early prime in Baseball years. This means the Red Sox absolutely will get value out of this extension. Let’s see his career stats and it’s worth mentioning he has accrued 15.2 WAR in career already. 

As you look through his stats, you can tell Devers is at his best when his batting average is nearer to .300. If you look at his career averages he slashes a .283 BA/ .342 OBP/ .512 SLG with a .854 OPS and a 124 OPS+. Devers has proven he’s an elite hitter. If he can keep the strikeouts to a minimum like he has this past season, Devers will continue to be elite. Of course, with his power numbers consistently hitting 20+ home runs per season there will be some strikeouts. 

Devers is below average at third base with his defense. As you see above, his Outs Above Average for last season was -2. Through his career you can see defense is lackluster. It’s unfortunate but his offensive output more than makes for it. It’s a good thing he’s already at third because the banning of the shift would hurt a lot if he wasn’t.  

Despite the below par defense, I believe the Red Sox made a great move to extend him. I think it makes the other moves make more sense. I still believe that letting Bogaerts walk wasn’t the best idea. Obviously giving a 30 year old shortstop 11 years is questionable. However, shorter term deals still exist. Anyway I love the move for the Red Sox and expect Devers to exceed his contract expectations. Main reason is at 35 or 36, I think Devers will still be playing at an acceptable level for 28 million per season. 

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

Evan Longoria To the Arizona Diamondbacks 

Evan Longoria has been a fixture at third base for the Rays and Giants for 15 years. He’s a first time free agent in his career which is kind of incredible. After 10 seasons with the Rays in 2017, he was traded to the San Francisco Giants. Now 5 years later, he’s a free agent and has signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. It may seem like a kind of insignificant move but according to fangraphs, Longoria will be the starting DH in the lineup. 

Longoria is one of the better hitting third baseman of all time. His career numbers are Hall of Fame quality. This post is less about the move to the Diamondbacks and more about his career. At 37 years old, it’s not impossible to think it might be his last stop. Over 15 years, the accumulation of counting stats is expected. But his career percentages are so good despite playing for so long. Let’s take a look at career stats: 

You’ll notice at the bottom, his career slash line is very good. There aren’t many players who end their career with BA .265/ OBP.334/ SLG.472 /OPS.806 /120 OPS+. If you look at the right side under the awards you can see Longoria has quite a few MVP votes but no wins. Longoria also has a causal 58 career WAR. Longoria has 3 gold gloves and 3 silver sluggers with 3 all star appearances. 

I think it’s fair to say that Longoria doing anything close to his career averages would be a win for the Diamondbacks. It’s a low risk, high reward type of deal for only 1 year. If Longoria doesn’t do well, I would definitely hope he would retire rather than ruin his excellent career numbers.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

Toronto Blue Jays Trade For Daulton Varsho

The Toronto Blue Jays have traded Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Gabriel Moreno for Daulton Varsho of the Arizona Diamondbacks. This trade interests me because Varsho is a known quality utility outfielder and catcher. The trade seems like a no-brainer for the Blue Jays and good trade on the part of the Diamondbacks. Let’s see what Varsho has to offer the Blue Jays who already have a deep catching position. My guess is Varsho will be in the outfield most of the time.

Daulton Varsho is a catcher and outfielder with 3 years of MLB experience. He bats left and throws right. Varsho has spent all of his career til this point with the Diamondbacks. Depending on what position you judge his hitting stats from, he’s either a great hitting catcher or an adequate hitting outfielder. Right now, fangraphs projects Varsho as the starting leftfielder. 

Varsho hitting sixth in what most people consider a loaded Blue Jays lineup is quite the compliment. But it’s somewhat deserved given what Varsho showed over his career especially in 2022 where he came into his own. It’s important to remember that Varsho has utility on defense as well which I think makes him even more valuable despite being just above average in hitting league wide. Let’s look at the stats: 

In 2022, Varsho played the most games of his career and put up the best numbers of his career. To his credit, there aren’t many catchers hitting like him and one of the few that is better than him is on his team now, in Alejandro Kirk. But as a left fielder, his numbers are good enough, particularly his on base percentage and his stolen base count. In terms of comparison to the league averages, Varsho’s homer rate is about 1 percent more than league average. He strikes out about 2 percent more than league average. Meanwhile his walk rate is basically league average. I think the Blue Jays got a steal for this trade. 

The two guys that the Blue Jays traded to the Diamondbacks are Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Gabriel Moreno. Moreno projects to be a backup catcher to second year stud Carson Kelly. I believe Moreno was just thrown in piece because the Diamondbacks did lose a backup catcher in Varsho. Moreno only has 25 Major Leage games under his belt, so his 2022 stats aren’t really representative. Here’s what baseball reference projects him to do in 2023:

I think it’s a fair projection if he can get anywhere close to these projections then its a win for the Diamondbacks. The bigger haul in the trade was Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Gurriel has 5 years of MLB experience. He bats and throws right. Just like Varsho, up until this trade he was only on the Blue Jays. I like that Gurriel is a utility guy who can play outfield, shortstop and second base. But most importantly, he’s been a consistently good hitter throughout his career: 

You really can’t hate anything about his game. He’s an above average career hitter. Although his power numbers aren’t overwhelming. But despite that Gurriel gets on base and gets hits consistently. Right now, fangraphs projects Gurriel Jr as the starting left fielder for the Diamondbacks. Overall I think the Diamondbacks will be happy with Gurriel just as the Blue Jays with Varsho. 

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics! 

Featured

Cubs Sign Dansby Swanson 

The Chicago Cubs have won the bid for the last great shortstop on the 2022 free agency market. They have inked former Atlanta Brave Dansby Swanson to a 7 year 177 million dollar deal. This isn’t the Cubs first big move, as they previously signed Jameson Tallion and Cody Bellinger as free agents. First, I want to see if Swanson is worth the 25 million dollar AAV. Then I want to see how Swanson might put the Cubs in playoff consideration. Obviously, we must consider the St. Louis Cardinals as favorites in the NL central. As for the Milwaukee Brewers you really don’t know which Brewers team we get? In my opinion, the Cubs would only need 85 plus wins to be in playoff contention. 

Dansby Swanson is a 28 year old right handed shortstop that has played 7 years in the MLB all with the Atlanta Braves. Swanson is known as a solid hitter and a great fielder. Luckily for Swanson, in 2022, he had one of his best seasons. Unluckily the shortstop free agent class was very deep. The Cubs and Swanson were right at market value because 25 million AAV is the going rate for a starting shortstop. So what can the Cubs expect from their new star:

What stands out about Swanson is his ability to stay on the field and his ability to hit the ball hard. This is especially true in his last two seasons. The problem for Swanson is strikeouts which is unique because typically any player that hits 30+ homeruns is expected to strike out more. The case for Swanson is that he strikes out more than he should and has never crossed that 30 homerun total. You’ll also notice he doesn’t walk all that much and his ratios confirm his problem: 24.6 percent strikeout rate vs. 8.6 percent walk rate. Mind you these are for his career. Also keep in mind, all his ratios are near or at MLB average. The best part of Dansby Swanson’s game is his defense. Last season his OAA was 20 and his RAA was 15. Both career highs. With elimination of the shift, good defense at shortstop is going to be worth his 25 million AAV regardless of his average hitting. 

The next part will be how does Swanson fit into the Cubs current lineup? According to fangraphs this is how the lineup looks thus far: 

I think that Swanson adds more than you would think for a league average hitter. It’s no reflection on Swanson but rather a product of the Cubs re-build. His batting average is second on the team and his slugging is first. If nothing else, Swanson adds depth to the lineup especially with the addition of Belligner. If Bellinger can find the 2018-2019 version of himself then the Cubs have a real shot at a wildcard in my opinion. They still need to add talent if they hope to top the Cardinals. Overall, I like the addition of Swanson on the Cubs for the 2023 season. 

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!