Tag Archives: Cleveland Guardians

Pre-Season Team Profile: Cleveland Guardians

Introduction

The Cleveland Guardians made a surprising run to the ALDS. Although maybe not surprising if you deep dive into their team. The Guardians have figured out a formula to be cheap and good. Although re-signing star Jose Ramirez to a long term deal. When you look at these projected rosters, just take notice what team these players are from. The majority is homegrown talent from within Cleveland’s organization. A lot of teams try to replicate this technique, popularized by the Moneyball A’s and the Tampa Bay Rays more recently. The Guardians weren’t super active in free agency but they did manage to snag Josh Bell. The Guardians are the first division winner on the MGM Power Rankings list. The Guardians went 92-70 with a 1st place finish in 2022. The MGM ranks the Guardians at 16 with a +2500 odds to win the World Series. 

patreon.com/TechincallyAnalytics Consider subscribing to support the blog!

Batting Lineup 

Impressively, the Guardians lineup remains very similar to last season’s with only two new faces. Let’s start with Mike Zunino at catcher because he replaces Austin Hedges. Zunino is a solid replacement and provides more offense when he’s healthy. The other new face is Josh Bell. Bell is on his third different team in about two years. That fortunately does not matter because Bell offers 7 years of solid hitting. If you look (below) at his baseball reference you can see his OPS nearly consistently above .700. Bell is my standout. But overall, the Guardians have a deep lineup with Bell who will protect Ramirez. The most dangerous thing aobut this lineup is the fact they can all get on base fairly well. The only weak spots are the 8 and 9 hitters. If this lineup can perform anywhere near last season’s numbers, this Guardians team will be back on top of the AL Central. 

Starting Rotation 

The most significant thing about the Guardians starting rotation is the amount of innings eaten by them. They ranked number 1 in the AL. (Baseball reference below) The other notable thing is how good they were. The rotation is arguably top heavy with Bieber and McKenize at the top. The two guys are my standouts. The rest of rotation wasn’t too bad but they could have brought in a pitcher to help improve depth. If you want  a deep dive especially of McKenzie and Clase you can check my other post about them. Overall I like the rotation and I’m expecting them to deliver a similar number of quality innings which is important to note. The improved offense should help further. 

Bullpen 

The Guardians bullpen were one of the best in the league. This is evidenced by their ranks in the top 10 of nearly every statistical category. The standout has to be Emmanuel Clase who was just unreal since his debut. I have to give their bullpen a lot of credit. A great bullpen means there is less pressure on your starters. The Guardians bullpen is the reason why I think they probably repeat the division title, all things being equal.  

My Prediction 

I hate to be boring here and say the Guardians will most likely repeat their AL Central title. I realize that this team could take a step back especially in the hitting. The Guardians had some impressive performances from guys like Steven Kwan. But here’s the thing, on base, contact hitters are usually very consistent. The Guardians don’t rely on much power outside of Ramirez and now Bell. On base, contact hitters typically have higher batting averages and on base percentages throughout their careers. Based on this, I don’t believe the majority of the lineup will regress by much if any. My prediction is a worse record of 88-74 and a best record of 94-68. The floor is 2nd place  and the ceiling is 1st place in the AL Central. I don’t think the White Sox will be there, they got worse. I believe the Twins got better but I’m not sure if it’s enough unless they really have a great season. In 2023, I’m expecting the Guardians to break through to the ALCS. 

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow or subscribe to the blog. Check out the social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

Guardians Promising Young Pitching Talent: How Good?

The recently renamed Cleveland Guardians are a young team with one of the league’s smallest payrolls. Despite this, the Guardians managed to make it to the ALDS only losing in Game 5 to the New York Yankees. One of the reasons for the Guardians success, is their pitching staff among other sides of the ball. They have a load of great pitchers both young and old. I’m going to focus on two young guys who have established themselves as certified great pitchers in the past few years. Emmanuel Clase and Triston McKenzie are a pair of young pitchers who really have made a name for themselves. Mind you, the Guardian pitching staff is ranked 4th in AL ERA with a 3.46. They also rank 1st in AL inning pitched and 5th in AL strikeouts with a 2nd rank in saves. 

Let’s start with one of the best closers in baseball, Emmanuel Clase. Clase throws right and has 3 years of MLB experience. He recently signed a 5 year 20 million dollars a year contract. Clase was drafted out of the Dominican Republic. At only 24 years old, Clase is shaping up to be one of the best closers in baseball. This season in 2022 he accumulated 2.8 bWAR and for his career he’s already up to 6.6 in just three seasons. Let’s take a look at his stats:

What stands out for Clase is his WHIP, FIP and low walks per nine. Clase doesn’t allow baserunners or many hits for that matter. He rarely allows a homerun. Not even mentioning his low ERA or his really excellent ERA+. So what does Clase throw that makes him so good? 

Clase features three pitches, but he rarely threw his four seam fastball, only 20 of them. His bread and butter pitches are his cutter and slider. As you can see from the chart provided by Baseball Savant, Clase just makes hitters miss. Clase reminds me of Mariano Rivera who had that nasty cutter. The Whiff rates on both his cutter and slider are in the 80th percentile of the league. Here is a visualization of the movement below. I think Clase’s results really speak for themselves. 

Triston McKenzie is a starting pitcher and he throws right handed. Currently 25 years old, McKenzie was drafted by the Guardians in 2015 and has 3 years of MLB experience. McKenzie is well known for his slim 6-5, 165 pound build which gave him the nickname “Dr. Sticks”. McKenzie had his best season in 2022. He accumulated 4.0 bWAR of his career 5.7 WAR in 2022. Let’s take a look a his stats: 

Very similar to Clase, McKenize’s eye opening stats are his WHIP and ERA+. McKenize also recorded a career high in strkeouts with 190 nearly 54 more. He also maintains a low walk rate and doesn’t give up the long ball too often. It’s also notable that his innings pitched were only second to Shane Bieber on his own team. Let’s dig deeper to see how McKenzie gets all those strikeouts:

As you see from Baseball Savant, unlike Clase, McKenzie’s best pitch is his fastball. Mckenize also has a curveball which is even better in terms of whiff rate than Clase’s slider. Nonetheless, it’s clear that McKenzie likely didn’t realize his slider was that effective. He probably should have thrown less sliders and more curves. One of McKenzie’s strengths is his fastball spin which sits at the 69th percentile in the league along with his 74th percentile chase rate. You can his spin rate visualized below:

Overall, I believe the statistics back up the statement that the Guardians young pitching staff is the basis for their recent playoff run. The Guardians also have some great offensive players which should probably be detailed in another post. But I really like what Clase and McKenzie bring to the mound.

Thanks for reading. Consider following or subscribing to the blog and Youtube channel. Also check out my social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics.

Free Agency: Mike Clevinger and Jose Abreu

Free Agency has begun. There has been a lot of smaller moves but SP Mike Clevinger and 1B/DH Jose Abreu have found new homes. These guys are well known players in their own right. Let us begin with Mike Clevinger.

The right handed Clevinger got his Major league start in Cleveland with the former Indians, current Guardians. He was then a part of that famous San Diego/ Cleveland in which a bunch of players that helped the Guardians get to ALDS. Meanwhile in San Diego with the Padres, Clevinger remained for 2 years. However, Clevinger missed 2021 with an Tommy John surgery. Clevinger has signed with the White Sox for 1 year 12 million dollars. The story of Mike Clevinger, statistically is one of constant improvement and consistent performance. Despite the fact, he bounced around to three different teams in his 6 years of MLB experience. Let’s take a look:

When you look at Clevinger stats, you can see why the White Sox took a chance on him. Of course 12 million for 1 year is a prove it deal. But his consistent sub 4.00 ERA since 2017, and his consistent 140+ ERA+ since 2017 kind of tells you how good he is. If you look at the 6 year average for HR/9, BB/9 and SO/9, Clevinger is a mid-tier, 3-4 starting pitcher. On a bad staff, he’s probably a 2 starter. HIs SO/9 is great at 9.5 and walk rate is good enough. The concern will be his HR/9 which at 1.1 is a bit high. This is was a good move for the White Sox. He also joining an already good rotation with Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Lance Lynn.

A former, career long White Sox Jose Abreu has decided to join the World Series Champions, Houston Astros. In his age 36 season, with 9 years of MLB experience. Abreu signed a 3 year 58.5 million dollar contract with the Astros. He throws and bats right. Abreu has a laundry list of accomplishments including a MVP, Rookie of the Year, 3x sliver slugger, and 3x All Star. Abreu has been a good hitter his whole career. The stats back this up. His time at DH kinda speaks for his defense at first base. That being said, after letting Trey Mancini go, I think the Astros made a great move. Lets see the stats:

I usually don’t go full fat stat brick but notice the award column. He has a lot of votes of MVP in multiple different years. You can also see the multiple times that Abreu led league in some offensive category, once in hits, twice in RBI and once in slugging percentage. If you look at his 9 year averages, you would easily pick a .292 BA/.354 OBP/.506 SLG/.860 OPS hitter to be on your team. Thats what you want your designated hitter to look like. I believe that despite his age, at the end of his deal he will be 39, the Astros won’t regret it. Abreu will continue to produce at a high level assuming he can stay healthy.

Thanks for reading! Also make sure to check out my social media page and subscribe to the blog for updates!

Thank you to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics.