Free Agency: Mike Clevinger and Jose Abreu

Free Agency has begun. There has been a lot of smaller moves but SP Mike Clevinger and 1B/DH Jose Abreu have found new homes. These guys are well known players in their own right. Let us begin with Mike Clevinger.

The right handed Clevinger got his Major league start in Cleveland with the former Indians, current Guardians. He was then a part of that famous San Diego/ Cleveland in which a bunch of players that helped the Guardians get to ALDS. Meanwhile in San Diego with the Padres, Clevinger remained for 2 years. However, Clevinger missed 2021 with an Tommy John surgery. Clevinger has signed with the White Sox for 1 year 12 million dollars. The story of Mike Clevinger, statistically is one of constant improvement and consistent performance. Despite the fact, he bounced around to three different teams in his 6 years of MLB experience. Let’s take a look:

When you look at Clevinger stats, you can see why the White Sox took a chance on him. Of course 12 million for 1 year is a prove it deal. But his consistent sub 4.00 ERA since 2017, and his consistent 140+ ERA+ since 2017 kind of tells you how good he is. If you look at the 6 year average for HR/9, BB/9 and SO/9, Clevinger is a mid-tier, 3-4 starting pitcher. On a bad staff, he’s probably a 2 starter. HIs SO/9 is great at 9.5 and walk rate is good enough. The concern will be his HR/9 which at 1.1 is a bit high. This is was a good move for the White Sox. He also joining an already good rotation with Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Lance Lynn.

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A former, career long White Sox Jose Abreu has decided to join the World Series Champions, Houston Astros. In his age 36 season, with 9 years of MLB experience. Abreu signed a 3 year 58.5 million dollar contract with the Astros. He throws and bats right. Abreu has a laundry list of accomplishments including a MVP, Rookie of the Year, 3x sliver slugger, and 3x All Star. Abreu has been a good hitter his whole career. The stats back this up. His time at DH kinda speaks for his defense at first base. That being said, after letting Trey Mancini go, I think the Astros made a great move. Lets see the stats:

I usually don’t go full fat stat brick but notice the award column. He has a lot of votes of MVP in multiple different years. You can also see the multiple times that Abreu led league in some offensive category, once in hits, twice in RBI and once in slugging percentage. If you look at his 9 year averages, you would easily pick a .292 BA/.354 OBP/.506 SLG/.860 OPS hitter to be on your team. Thats what you want your designated hitter to look like. I believe that despite his age, at the end of his deal he will be 39, the Astros won’t regret it. Abreu will continue to produce at a high level assuming he can stay healthy.

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Thank you to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics.

Aaron Judge: Homerun King

Aaron Judge, if you’ve been living under a rock, is an all-star centerfielder for the New York Yankees. Judge burst onto the baseball scene in 2016 and has been very good ever since with a really great season in 2017. This year in 2022, Judge has turned up the dial to 11. This past off-season he turned down the Yankees contract extension offer reportedly in the range of 8 years 230 million dollars. Might sound like a lot of money but for a player of his caliber with a 6.0 WAR last season and get ready for this, a 9.7 WAR this season. (Yes it’s correct, 9.7) The most impressive thing about Judge aside from his handling of the New York media and his freakish athletic skills is his ability to hit dingers. (HRs) 

Judge has broken the single home run record on October 4th, 2022. This post isn’t so concerned with the amount of home runs nor the record itself which was set by Roger Maris (61). Let’s dig right into some statistics. The first noticeable thing about Judge looking at his batting ratios: 9.4 percent home run ratio which is 1.5 percent higher than the next highest season. In many cases it’s nearly 3 or 4 percent more. This means Judge is hitting home runs more often than not. If you dig deeper it gets even more crazy. 

Part of the reason why Judge hits home runs so often is because he keys in on two particular types of pitches: Fastballs and Sliders. Fastballs are more frequently thrown so those numbers are higher but it’s still impressive. Just look at these insane numbers:

Type of Pitch            #HR       Run Value Hard Hit % # of Pitch

Fastballs	34 HR	25	68.8%	729
Breaking balls	21 HR	28	56.3%	682
Offspeed	5 HR	14/4/7*	64/40/60%*	1234*

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

*Combination of Changeup, Curveball, Cutter, Splitter. 

*Numbers current as of September 21st

As if these numbers aren’t crazy enough lets just his barrel percentage and barrel per plate appearance: %26.7 and %11.6 respectively. A baseline across MLB is %6.7 barrels and 4.6 barrels per plate appearance. Yes, Judge is a well known power hitter. However, his ability to identify and locate fastballs and breaking balls is among the best in the MLB. 

Judge has placed himself among the most elite hitters in the game. On par with guys like Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Albert Pujols, just to name a few. I believe he deserves a contract next season on the order of 400 to 500 million. Judge’s 9.7 WAR is currently tied for 208th all time in a single season with current players like Bryce Harper (2015) and Albert Pujols (2009).  These guys got paid big money too. We haven’t seen a talent like Judge maybe ever, especially his ability to identify and smash certain pitches. Go watch some Aaron Judge, he can reach anywhere around the plate. 

Ps. I hope he comes to the Mets next year!

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I’d like to thank Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the numbers.