BASEBALL IS BACK! OFFSEASON MOVES!

Baseball is back!

Hello, This week I recap some moves of this offseason. Enjoy!

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San Diego Padres: Postseason Production from Trade Deadline

The San Deigo Padres were eliminated by the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS in the 2022 playoffs. They had a really good run despite missing their best player Fernado Tatis (80 PED violation). Back in late July and August, the Padres made a few trades. Of those trades previously mentioned, Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Washington Nationals. The other trades saw the Padres acquire Brandon Dury and Josh Hader. This post has a simple goal to evaluate what contribution these acquisitions made in their fantastic postseason run.

 Just to recap: The Padres made it as the fifth seed wildcard. They played the 4th seeded New York Mets and won the wild card 2-1. The Padres advanced to play their “daddy” the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. The Padres showed the Dodgers who’s really Daddy by handling them 3-1. In the NLCS, the Padres met the lowest wild card six seeded Phillies who beat them 4-1. With that, let’s start with the contribution of Josh Hader. 

Josh Hader struggled after being traded from the Milwaukee Brewers. But near the end of the season and into the postseason, Hader returned to form. Hader is one of the premier relief pitchers or closers in the league. The results for Hader speak for themselves. He only got better as the postseason went on:

What stands out most for me about Hader is that he didn’t give up any runs. Plus the strikeouts per 9 just continue to climb up. The more the inning he pitches in means the better he is. Obviously as a reliever he only pitched 5.1 innings so it doesn’t jump off the page. But the zero runs allowed is what matters here. 

Juan Soto is a known lefty threat at the plate. Like Hader, Soto struggled at first to be his usual self. Unfortunately for Soto, he never really found his groove in the postseason. 

Soto only hit two homeruns and only had 4 walks in a lot of at-bats. I guess if you want to be nice about it, you could say he stepped it up in the NLCS. His stats otherwise are unimpressive, particularly in the series against the Dodgers. Perhaps his National’s teammate Josh Bell performed better?

Josh Bell also struggled after being traded but seemed to find his stride in the playoffs. You can safely ignore his stats against the Dodgers with only 6 AB in the whole 4 games played. But in the other two series, Bell hit slightly better than Soto. 

Similar to Soto, Bell really hit well against the Phillies. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough but he was productive when he did play. 

Brandon Dury is an interesting case because in the first two series he didn’t get as much playing time. In the series against the Phillies, Dury made his impact felt and the stats prove it:

As you can see his 1.104 OPS and .667 slugging tell the story for Dury. I remember when Dury had a stint with my Mets, he really took good advantage of his opportunities off the bench. I want to believe he probably stil has that in him. 

Of all the four players, which one do you think had the biggest impact for the Padres? I would probably give it to Hader or Dury. Hader doesn’t surprise me given his history. But Dury is a little surprising. I would have thought that Soto being on that 2019 Nationals world series run would be able to produce more. But overall, I believe the Padres aggressive trade deadline was a big part of their 2022 playoff run. 

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics and charts!

Power Walking: Juan Soto vs. Barry Bonds

The historical run of lefty slugger Barry Bonds is well documented in baseball history. Bonds was best known for his steroid use, home runs and walks. Bonds has the most walks in baseball history. The combination of his power threat and plate discipline changed the game. What if I told you there was another young lefty slugger following in Bond’s footsteps? Interesting right? 

Before we get to Juan Soto who is on a similar path to Bonds, we need to discuss what’s so impressive about accumulating walks or “base on balls” also abbreviated as BB. If you know baseball, you know a walk is just when the count gets to 4 balls. There are also intentional walks where the pitcher either throws four balls in a pitch out or nowadays it’s just signaled from the dugout. (Bonds happens to lead in intentional walks with 688) Walks in baseball can be pretty boring until you realize what a feat it is. A true walk where a batter works the pitcher into a walk can be a sign of specific skill. That skill is plate discipline or the ability to distinguish the difference between a 101 mph fastball on the corner or just to outside of the plate. 

Let us compare Bonds and Soto to see why Soto is on pace to be the next Bonds. Let’s start with Bond’s numbers: 2,558 walks, 688 Intentional, 762 home runs. Bonds has an average walk rate per season of 139 over his 22 year career. Juan Soto who currently plays for the San Diego Padres has these numbers so far over his 5 year career: 499 walks, 52 intentional walks, 123 home runs. Soto averages 134 walks per season. 

You might think Soto is very far away from Bonds. But Soto is very young at 23 years old with 5 years already under his belt. His peak hasn’t come yet. He has 17 more seasons to catch Bonds. Their walk rates are fairly similar, only a 5 walk difference. Also I should note that in Bond’s first 5 seasons he never eclipsed 100 walks. Soto’s walk rate will only increase with age. Soto has eclipsed 100 walks in 3 of 5 seasons. (Technically 2020 doesn’t count with only 60 games) 

As for the power stroke, Juan Soto will need to hit more as he trails Bonds in home run rate with only 33 average home runs per season compared to Barry Bonds with 41 on average. I still think it’s safe to say that Juan Soto will more than likely become the next walks leader in Major League Baseball. 

Stay tuned as posts will be twice a week!

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