San Diego Padres: Postseason Production from Trade Deadline

The San Deigo Padres were eliminated by the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS in the 2022 playoffs. They had a really good run despite missing their best player Fernado Tatis (80 PED violation). Back in late July and August, the Padres made a few trades. Of those trades previously mentioned, Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Washington Nationals. The other trades saw the Padres acquire Brandon Dury and Josh Hader. This post has a simple goal to evaluate what contribution these acquisitions made in their fantastic postseason run.

 Just to recap: The Padres made it as the fifth seed wildcard. They played the 4th seeded New York Mets and won the wild card 2-1. The Padres advanced to play their “daddy” the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. The Padres showed the Dodgers who’s really Daddy by handling them 3-1. In the NLCS, the Padres met the lowest wild card six seeded Phillies who beat them 4-1. With that, let’s start with the contribution of Josh Hader. 

Josh Hader struggled after being traded from the Milwaukee Brewers. But near the end of the season and into the postseason, Hader returned to form. Hader is one of the premier relief pitchers or closers in the league. The results for Hader speak for themselves. He only got better as the postseason went on:

What stands out most for me about Hader is that he didn’t give up any runs. Plus the strikeouts per 9 just continue to climb up. The more the inning he pitches in means the better he is. Obviously as a reliever he only pitched 5.1 innings so it doesn’t jump off the page. But the zero runs allowed is what matters here. 

Juan Soto is a known lefty threat at the plate. Like Hader, Soto struggled at first to be his usual self. Unfortunately for Soto, he never really found his groove in the postseason. 

Soto only hit two homeruns and only had 4 walks in a lot of at-bats. I guess if you want to be nice about it, you could say he stepped it up in the NLCS. His stats otherwise are unimpressive, particularly in the series against the Dodgers. Perhaps his National’s teammate Josh Bell performed better?

Josh Bell also struggled after being traded but seemed to find his stride in the playoffs. You can safely ignore his stats against the Dodgers with only 6 AB in the whole 4 games played. But in the other two series, Bell hit slightly better than Soto. 

Similar to Soto, Bell really hit well against the Phillies. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough but he was productive when he did play. 

Brandon Dury is an interesting case because in the first two series he didn’t get as much playing time. In the series against the Phillies, Dury made his impact felt and the stats prove it:

As you can see his 1.104 OPS and .667 slugging tell the story for Dury. I remember when Dury had a stint with my Mets, he really took good advantage of his opportunities off the bench. I want to believe he probably stil has that in him. 

Of all the four players, which one do you think had the biggest impact for the Padres? I would probably give it to Hader or Dury. Hader doesn’t surprise me given his history. But Dury is a little surprising. I would have thought that Soto being on that 2019 Nationals world series run would be able to produce more. But overall, I believe the Padres aggressive trade deadline was a big part of their 2022 playoff run. 

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics and charts!

Washington Nationals Trade Deadline: Most Impactful Players (Thus Far)

The Washington Nationals had one of the more interesting trade deadlines in recent years. In reality they continued to blow up their roster which now looks nothing like the one that won a world series in 2019. The Nationals with some controversy traded their two best players. Josh Bell is a power hitting first baseman and an obvious trade target for other teams. The more controversial palyer was Juan Soto. Soto is only 24 years old and the lefty slugger is on pace to match all time greats like Barry Bonds in walks and homeruns. Soto is a generational talent. So let’s take a look at two players they got in return for the trade. They received six players in total and here is the full trade:

The first player the Nationals received from the Padres is CJ Abrams. An upcoming rookie shortstop, Abrams was already playing in the majors with the Padres. Abrams hits left and throws right. He’s only 22 years old. He was drafted by the Padres in 2019 out of highschool. Abrams isn’t really a power guy and he’s clearly still adjusting to the Major Leagues. Here are stats so far in 90 total games: 

What stands out to me is that he kept consistent even when switching teams. Also its encouraging that his batting average and on base percentage are nearly .250 and .300 respectively. You want a contact guy to be getting on base a lot. Another encouraging stat is his 7 total stolen bases. I think he will develop power as he matures. If he can pull his numbers up to around .290 BA, .350 OBP and slug just a little more in the .500 range, he could be 100+ in OPS+. He also needs to work on his fielding with 11 errors on the Nationals after only committing 2 with the Padres. 

The second player I think will have a big impact is MacKenzie Gore. Gore is a lefty rookie pitcher currently in the minors. At 23 years old, he was drafted by the Padres in 2017 out of highschool. Gore made his debut with the Padres. He hasn’t thrown a pitch for the Nationals as of yet. Similar to Abrams, it’s clear that Gore has struggled to adjust to the Majors. Here are his stats for both his major league stint and his minors stint with Washington: 

With Gore you can safely ignore his era, win/loss record due to low innings pitched. But even ignoring them its hard to ignore his 4.11 FIP and 1.471 WHIP. He’s allowing too many baserunners. In part its hits but also walks with a 4.8 walk per 9. Gore does average 9.3 strikeouts per 9. These stats tell me he just needs to find consistent control and command of his pitches. A quick check of Gore’s pitch mix run values it’s clear that he really only had his fastball and curveball working effectively. I think that Gore can probably be a top line starter if he can develop his change up and slider along with improving his curve and fastball. Even his movement is good on the fastball. Charts below: 

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Thank you to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics and charts!