Ronald Acuna Jr. plays for the Atlanta Braves. As a Mets fan, he’s not my favorite player to face off against. Acuna possesses the skills and talent to be one of the better MLB players in the league. Before his devastating injury in 2021, he was on track to be a 40/40 guy. Of course if you aren’t familiar, 40/40 is 40 home runs and 40 steals in one season. He came close in 2019 with 41 HRs and 37 steals. Acuna is more than just a great hitter, he is a really good fielder. If you look at his fielding this past year, you can tell his knee injury was holding him back. In this post, we’re going to look at just how good Acuna can be and what to expect this year in 2023!
Acuna came into the league pretty much producing at an MVP level. His .917 OPS, .293 BA and .552 SLG really give you an idea about what Acuna is capable of. The average based numbers go down slightly in 2019 because Acuna plays 40 more games. However, his counting stats are league leading in multiple categories including runs and steals. We can safely ignore the 2020 season because it’s only 46 games but nonetheless a stellar performance. In 2021, before the injury that ended his season, Acuna was on pace for a 40/40 season with 24 HR and 17 steals in 82 games approximately half the season left to go. Last season in 2022, Acuna underperformed and it’s likely due to the injury. He tore an ACL or PCL which can often take up to 2 years to fully recover from.
These two charts are Run value swing/take charts from baseball savant. It may look complicated but the main takeaway is that Acuna wasn’t the same hitter at the plate before and after his knee injury in ‘21. The bottom chart is 2019, one of his best seasons. Overall +44 run value with the majority of the runs coming from the ‘chase’ zone at +29. His least best zone was the shadow zone at -11 runs. This is a representation of Acuna’s strengths and weaknesses in the zone and outside of it. In 2022, Acuna took a significant dive with a total of +14 runs. He remained strong in the ‘chase’ zone but was very weak in both shadow and heart zones with 0 and -11 runs respectively. Acuna will likely re-find the magic in 2023.
Before we conclude my favorite player to hate, we have to look at his defense. The knee injury vastly affected Acuna’s ability to move in the outfield. We want to look specifically at the differences in his previous seasons with regard to OAA and RAA. (Outs Above Average and Runs Above Average) These are the most reliable defensive metrics. As you can see Acuna was about average, you can see in 2019 that he struggled. But in 2022, you see a major departure from his normal. He registered -5 OAA and -4 RAA. I have to assume that he will vastly improve this 2023.
Overall, I think Acuna is set to have a possible record setting season much to my chagrin. I hope to see him return to form but I hope my Mets prevail over the Braves. Let’s Go Mets!
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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!
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