Introduction
The Toronto Blue Jays had another great offseason bringing in some top line free agents and making decent trades. The Blue Jays brought hitters like Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield. They also brought in a starting pitcher in Chris Bassitt. Overall I like most of these moves. The most questionable is Brandon Belt who struggled mightly in San Fransicso. Overall the Blue Jays were a good team last year especially with hitting as they ranked top 10 in most categories. This could be the year the Blue Jays finally break through and make a deep playoff run. In 2022, the Blue Jays went 92-70 finishing in 2nd place behind the New York Yankees. They ended up losing in the wild card to the Seattle Mariners. I tend to put the Mariners and Blue Jays in the same category of team. Both teams have rosters with the potential to make a deep playoff run but haven’t quite done it yet. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks the Blue Jays at 8th with +1400 odds to win the World Series.
Batting Lineup
The Blue Jays lineup is very solid from top to bottom. They present no easy outs for teams. I particularly love the 1-6 hitters. In the top 6 hitters only one of them didn’t hit more than 20 homeruns. You’ll also notice the batting averages are closer to .300 than not. This means these six hitters are dangerous in any situation. The addition of Varsho adds to the lineup and just gives them more fire power. The back end of the lineup lacks the pop and average in the front and middle. My standout is Vladmir Guerrero Jr. Vladdy needs to continue to lead this team and put up ridiculous numbers. I feel like this lineup is one of the stronger ones even among the teams ahead. George Springer is an absolute nightmare leadoff guy. He can hurt you with his power or his contact. Bo Bichette is the same. Overall I love this lineup and the sky’s the limit, this team could be the highest scoring offense in the league.
Starting Rotation
The Blue Jays rotation looks very similar to their lineup in that it’s absolutely loaded. My standout is Jose Berrios. His numbers in 2022, don’t reflect the type of pitcher he can be. He will need to turn it around especially for a playoff series. Manoah and Gausman are two of the best pitchers in the league. I think they can shove for ‘23. As for Chris Bassitt, I can tell since he was with the Mets last season, that he’s amazing. Bassitt is one of those pitchers who gives six innings regardless of if he gives up 1 run or 7 runs. In fact, he seems to get better as the game goes on. Overall, if this rotation stays healthy and has good performances there’s no reason they aren’t in the top 10.
Bullpen
The Blue Jays bullpen is one of the better ones in the league. They bolster their bullpen by trading for Erik Swanson. There isn’t much to say because nearly every pitcher had a season with the exception of Trevor Richards and Mitch White. These two are my standouts because if they can step it up then this bullpen might be one of the best. I think the Jay’s bullpen will be underrated because there aren’t a lot of household names. But Jorn Romano should get more love for what he’s doing. Excluding his first season, Romano has been pretty close to lights out. (Check his stats below) Overall you really like what this bullpen can do, if they can repeat a similar level of performance in 2023.
My Prediction
The Blue Jays are one of the better teams in the league. Obviously they haven’t found that playoff success yet. My expectation is that the Blue Jays will pull closer to the Yankees. The possibility that Judge repeats that historic season is so small. The Blue Jays pitching staff improved slightly while the Yankees did get Carlos Rodon. In all honesty, in my opinion if the Blue Jays can handle the Yankees then they just need to worry about beating Houston in the playoffs like literally everyone else. The balanced schedule certainly helps them. My prediction is a worst record of 90-72 and a best record of 99-63. The Blue Jays have a floor of 3rd place and a ceiling of 1st place. I really believe that the Blue Jays if it all goes right come in ahead of the Yankees in first. If the Blue Jays have it go very wrong or get injured, I can see the Rays topping them for 2nd. Regardless, I think the Blue Jays make the playoffs again.
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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics
Technically Analytics 