Introduction
The Philadelphia Phillies came within a few games of a World Series trophy. It was a surprising and unexpected run for a team that consistently underperformed. I’ll give the same disclaimer here as I did for the Braves, I’m not a big fan of the Phillies but I’ll try to be as fair as possible in evaluating their team. I attended one game in 2022, it happened to be Mets vs. Phillies. The Mets ended up shutting them out 6-0, this was in August. The Phillies also had a great offseason, retooling their lineup, starting rotation and bullpen. They brought in quality and star players like Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, and Craig Kimbrel. The Phillies are actually one of the few teams who I would expect to easily surpass their 2022 record of 87-75, good enough for 3rd place. As a Mets fan, I respect this team. Also for the record, another player who is currently hurt in Bryce Harper is a guy who I’d love if he was on my team. The MGM Power Ranking List ranks the Philllies at 5th with a +1400 odds to win the World Series.
Batting Lineup
The Phillies lineup is one of the deeper and better lineups in the Major Leagues. I believe that bringing Trea Turner in was a smart move short term. I think with his combination of power and speed, it’s win-win. Unfortunately for a 10 year contract, speed doesn’t age well with Turner being 29 already. Schwarber, Hoskins and JT Realmuto are a solid core of power hitters. The Phillies lack no power in this lineup. JT Realmuto is one of the premier offensive catchers in the game. Then you have more power starting with 5 hitter Nick Castellanos, Darick Hall, and Alec Bohm. Bohm struggled to start the season but eventually found his groove late in the season. The bottom of the lineup features two defensive studs in Stott and Marsh. It’s hard to pick a standout, but it’s Trea Turner because there’s pressure to perform for 300 million dollars. Overall, this has to be one of the most dangerous lineups and will get more dangerous when Bryce Harper returns in July.
Starting Rotation
The Phillies rotation is good but often found themselves in the middle of the pack. Four of five starters return with the addition of Taijuan Walker. In another post, I praised this move by the Phillies. I believe that Walker will certainly be worth the 4 year contract. He’s capable of being a solid number 2 and a great 3 or 4. Obviously Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are one of the best 1-2 punch top rotation guys. Nola and Wheeler are my standouts because they really carried the Phillies in the playoffs and I expect them to do more of the same. To round it out, you have Suarez and Falter who were actually solid. Overall, I like the rotation. Maybe it’s not in the top 5 but possibly in the top 15.
Bullpen
The Phillies bullpen really came to play in the playoffs. During the season, their ranks were middle of the road. It’s going to be hard to repeat that same performance level. However, the Phillies added a few upgrades in Craig Kimbrel and Matt Strahm. My standout was traded for in Detroit, Gregory Soto. I think Soto will maintain that high level of performance that kept the Phillies rolling deep into the playoffs. I think we also saw the emergence of Seranthony Dominguez and confirmed Jose Alvardo is really good. Overall, you have to expect at least a similar level of performance to 2022.
My Prediction
I believe when the Phillies get Bryce Harper back sometime in July, they will be just as competitive as the Mets and Braves. The Phillies will also get helped by the balanced schedule. They were very bad against divisional opponents. I think they made offseason moves that immediately improved their team and I respect that. However when you take into account their division rivals and the weakness they had last year (defense still problematic), they still may only be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NL East. Despite this, it will be the only team I put their worst record above last year’s win total. My prediction is a worst record of 89-73 and a best record of 102-60. The Phillies have a floor of 3rd place and a ceiling of 1st place. As a reminder, I’ve decided due to the extremely competitive nature of the NL East that all three teams, the Mets, Braves and Phillies have the same best record. There’s honestly no way to predict the order but I believe the Phillies land back in third and get another wildcard run.
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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!
Technically Analytics 