Introduction
The San Diego Padres came within a few games of the World Series. They looked to be a powerhouse team after their fantastic trade deadline in 2022. They acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell, and Josh Hader with hopes to run the table. Unfortunately Soto and Bell struggled a bit. They came up short but that didn’t stop general manager A.J. Preller from doubling down and going even harder in free agency. The Padres acquired star shortstop Xander Bogaerts in free agency. The roster looks pretty good on the surface, particularly the lineup. Many critics and myself have questions if their rotation is on the same level as the Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Braves, Phillies. The rotation certainly pulled its weight in 2022. The biggest question will be how maligned star Fernando Tatis Jr will look coming off an injury plus a reduced 80 suspension for steriod use. Tatis is predictably the last piece of the puzzle because he has all the skill potential to be that guy that carries a team. This past year has left many questioning his leadership abilities and if he can play at the level that is expected. Last season in 2022, the Padres went a respectable 89-73 and finished in 2nd place in the NL west. The MGM Power Ranking list puts them 3rd with an odds of +1000 to win the World Series.
Batting Lineup
The Padres batting lineup features one of the more solid middle of the lineups in the Major Leagues. Of course, we have to wait until April 20th to see what it looks like completed with Fernando Tatis able to return to play. Let’s talk about the players that surround batters 2-5. Starting at the top, we have the most dependable replacement shortstop/second baseman Ha-Seong Kim. Kim did a really solid job at filling in for Tatis in his absence. Then you have the other two free agent acquitsions in Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter. Cruz will look to have a bounce back after a down year last year. Carpenter is coming off an injury and will be interested if he can continue to hit as consistently with regular at-bats. At 8 and 9 you have Austin Nola and Trent Grisham. Trent Grisham really showed out in the playoffs to his credit. The middle lineup where my three standouts live. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Juan Soto are the most important of this Padres lineup. If these three guys can have career best seasons, the Padres can win a lot of games. Add in Tatis and Jake Croenworth, and you have 5 guys who give you a lot of hits and a lot of power. Overall, you like the chances that the Padres are a high scoring team.
Starting Rotation
The Padres rotation is a question relative to other top teams as I referenced in the introduction. This isn’t to say that the rotation lacks star power or talent but rather depth. Overall you can see their ERA, innings and strikeouts are all good. Yu Darvish just signed a six year extension, he’s just getting better with age at 36. Joe Musgrove has been killing it for nearly 2 years now. Blake Snell could actually be even better than he was. Nick Martinez was solid but will need to pitch more innings. Then you have Seth Lugo. Lugo is my standout because he could make or break this rotation. Lugo is a former Mets reliever and he was always great in that role. His previous starting experience has gone badly. If Lugo can be a starter with 3.00 ERA or better, 150 innings and 180 strikeouts, I think the Padres rotation is comparable to those top teams.
Bullpen
The Padres bullpen projects to be better than the stats you see on the page. They were obviously solid last season. My standout is Josh Hader. I think if Josh Hader can just be himself again then the Padres bullpen has no problem being in the top 10. The guys returning from last season are solid and if they continue that trend, there’s no reason why the bullpen won’t be good.
My Prediction
The San Diego Padres have a legitimate team and they will be winning a lot of games. Now as a Mets fan, remembering the painful wildcard elimination at their hand, I can tell you they are more scary. The problem is when you look at their division, the Giants, Diamondbacks and Rockies are no threat. However, the Los Angeles Dodgers reside in the NL West as well. The Dodgers track record tells me they will find a way to finish ahead no matter what. I’m not saying there isn’t a chance for the Padres to overcome but it’s so slim. Balanced schedule will help a bit. There’s no doubt they will be in the playoffs again. My prediction is a worst record of 95-67 and a best record of 105-57. The Padres ceiling is first place and the floor is second place. Now the keen eyed among you will notice, I didn’t put their wins in either category above the Dodgers. I really believe it’s going to be closer than last year but the Dodgers eek them out by a few games.
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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!
Technically Analytics 