Aaron Judge: $360 million dollar Yankee Captain

The Yankees finished up their chess game with all time free agent Aaron Judge. A lot of false speculation and pot stirring regarding the landing spot of Judge. The Yankees were fortunate that Judge reportedly told teams he cared more about his legacy than money. However, in the end his 9 year 360 million is the highest AAV for any position player. Even with all the large contracts handed including two 11 year deals. I’ve written about Judge before regarding his recent season homerun record. The usual question to ask after a contract is signed like this, would be something along the lines is Aaron Judge worth all 9 years? I think the answer is yes. We will look at his stats again but I think the value proposition starts to be more questionable after age 35 to age 39. His production from now til 35 should be more than enough to justify that 40 million dollar price tag. 

When you look at Aaron Judge’s career statistics, you can tell that he probably won’t be dropping off statistically significantly for a few years. Up until this point, for six seasons previous to this contract, Judge has maintained an OPS+ of 140 or more. The craziest part about the Judge is that he’s truly great at baseball. There is a reason why Judge was wanted by so many teams. Its unlikely you will find such a generational talent. There’s only a handful of guys who have OPS .900 and above. There’s even less guys that have an OPS above .900 for 5 of 7 seasons to start their career. Baseball players like Aaron Judge don’t just come around often. So let’s look at his stats: 

When you see the bold, especially the amount bold in 2022 you can see why the Yankees had to give him 40 million dollars. Judge may never have a season like he did in 2022 again. But in my opinion, if he can reach at least his career average slash line that’s a win for the Yankees. What team wouldn’t want a player with .284 BA/ .394 OBP/ .583 SLG/ .977 OPS. Every team wants a guy like this. One thing that bodes well for Judge is his plate discipline. I’ve mentioned it before in his home run record post. I would expect as he gets older, his walk rate and intentional walk rate to go up. Of course because Judge is a power guy, the strikeouts will still be relatively high. 

A good indicator of career success in the future is certain ratios that give you a percentage of a certain outcome. Also isolated batting ratios help tell you how good that player is on a consistent basis. Counting stats like batting average, homeruns or strikeout numbers alone don’t always tell the whole story. 

As you can tell, the ratios also say Judge is a great hitter. A .375 ISO is an insane number. Judge is very productive. If you look at the very bottom where it has Judge’s 7 year career average and the MLB averages you can see where Judge compares to the average MLB player. In terms of homerun percentage, Judge hits twice as much homeruns as league average at nearly 4 percent more. Judge also walks nearly 6 percent more than league average. Of course, as I said with the power comes more strikeouts, with a 6 percent strikeout percentage over league average. 

So to answer the question, is Aaron Judge worth the 9 year 360 million dollars? The answer is a resounding yes. I believe his production in the first four or five years will make up for whatever lack of production in age years 36-39. Aaron Judge is an exceptional baseball player. 

Thanks for reading! Consider following or subscribing to the blog. Also check out my social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics.

Free Agent Spotlight: Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo, currently of the New York Mets, was a free agent for the first time. In an unfortunate circumstance, it happens to be the same free agency year as Aaron Judge. As you probably know Judge is the premier free agent of any position not just in centerfield. This means Judge will inevitably set the market unless NImmo signs back with the Mets or another team quickly before Judge. Of course, one advantage for Nimmo is that teams that miss out or maybe can’t afford the 300+ million dollar contract Judge will command, will be able to sign Nimmo for relatively cheaper. If you consider 100 million- 150 million to be cheap. (haha) 

As a Mets fan, I’m a little biased but also watching him play everyday and his ability as a leadoff hitter is impressive. The other impressive thing that really became clear this season was Nimmo’s ability to field his position. He made a number of excellent catches which before 2021 was not the case. Nimmo bats left and throws right. He’s 29 years old with 7 years of MLB experience. Nimmo does not exclusively play centerfield because he has played the two corner outfield spots. Nimmo is a true leadoff contact/speed guy. He can work at bats, often getting to a full count (3-2). You’ll see this reflect in his numbers, high on base percent, high batting averages, low HR and Slugging. Here are his stats: 

You’ll notice he didn’t have his best season in 2022. But it is notable he hit the second most homeruns and the most doubles and triples of his career.   He also accumulated the most RBI of his career and played in the most games ever in his career. Nimmo has had problems staying healthy but seems to have figured it out this season. If your team is interested in Nimmo, you’re probably wondering what does he hit? The answer is pretty much everything. 

Now let us focus on Nimmo’s defense which has been a problem in the past. It seems like the past two seasons, Nimmo has become a sufficient defensive center fielder. He committed no errors and had a fielding percentage of 100.  In 2021, Nimmo only committed one error with a fielding percentage of 99.5.  This compares to the first five years of his career where he committed 6 errors and struggled. The best illustration of this is a chart of his jump ratings according to baseball savant, you can see the improvement.

I think to end off, I’ll put Nimmo’s baseball savant/ statcast sliders. But before that, I believe that any team that signs Nimmo won’t regret it at the right price. Although he is prone to slumps and usually you can tell because he will fail to make it a full count or get a walk. His lower power numbers and historically poor defense will put him a bit lower in salary to Judge. I would predict Nimmo to get around 4-6 years for around 100 million to 150 million dollars. Also keep in mind, the Mets did extend the qualifying offer. The QO is worth 21 million for one year and if Nimmo signs with another team, the Mets receive a compensatory draft pick. I believe Nimmo will decline the QO and sign a multiyear deal, hopefully with the Mets. 

Update: Nimmo signed a 8 year 162 million dollar deal with the New York Mets.

Thanks for reading. Consider following or subscribing to the blog.

Also check out my social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics.