I want to tell you this post will be shorter but I’d be lying to myself. This post is just an update on some stuff that has happened since the invasion of Ukraine occurred two weeks ago. I want to address the sanctions that keep piling on Russia. I’d also like to talk about how Russia is dealing with these isolating sanctions. To end it, I’ll probably discuss what the hell the US is trying to do within the context of this conflict. I believe the US has an ulterior motive.
Sanctions: Economic Turmoil
By now, you’ve probably heard about the ridiculous amount of sanctions being piled on Russia. Russia may deserve a vast majority of it. Unfortunately, the sanctions are not doing what you think they are. To the causal observer it might appear that Russia would suffer especially Vladimir Putin. However, the sanctions such as they are, more often affect the people of Russia who had no part or role in deciding to invade Ukraine. In fact, many Russian people have tried to protest the war. This is extremely unfair to punish innocent people. I believe sanctions are flawed and wrong just as much as war is. But here we are.
The sanctions have for the most part cut off Russia from the rest of world with a few exceptions (China and Russia agreed to new payment system). Putin has not shown any signs of slowing down. I think the sanctions failing to slow Putin just shows how much a win means to him. In my last post, I predicted that Putin either wouldn’t stop unless he got his pro-Russian territories and the canal leading to crimean plus a Ukraine puppet state similar to Belarus. It seems that only a compromise guaranteeing Putin either a puppet state or the other two things would stop the bloodshed. It’s hard to ignore that NATO trying push closer to the Russia border makes Putin uncomfortable. Remember NATO is foundationally anti-Russia organization. So Putin is truly being backed into a corner and he’s not going down without a fight.
Russia: Looking for a Deal
There is no doubt that the Russian economy is about implode. Russia isn’t as fucked as you might. The country sits on top a lot of natural resources mainly oil. Russia also has the gift of fertile wheat fields. Unfortunately with most payment companies pulling out of Russia and most Russia financial assets being frozen, the ruble is going to crash hard. This will obviously hurt the Russia people more than anything. I know the US thinks sanctions will hurt Putin’s war effort. They forgot about those natural resources. Russia exports a lot of oil worldwide mostly to Europe and 3 percent to the US. Russia also exports a lot of wheat. (not more than US tho) So naturally, when the invasion started gas and wheat prices spiked. This was due to fear there would be disruptions in supply. The mainstream propaganda is that Putin is responsible for the price increases. This is 100 percent wrong. Let me explain why.
The oil market is based on supply and demand. It’s complicated especially with alliances like OPEC. Russian oil mainly exported through a pipeline to Europe. This was shutdown by Germany. So rising gas prices in Europe are thanks to sanctions meant to hurt Russia. Here in the US, the oil is shipped in tankers. A loss of 3 percent of imported oil might see a temporary spike but in reality the US oil industry is capable of a 70 percent market share. Biden handicapped the ability to drill on federal land in his first month in office. So the rising gas prices in the US are actually due to Biden’s policies and fear mongering about the war. Mind you this isn’t even the scary part
The news broke a day or two ago that Saudi Arabia and China have agreed to a 10 billion dollar deal to build refineries to help refine Russian oil. I found an article related to this deal, which basically Saudi Arabia would sell oil for the Chinese Yuan. The article explains the basics of the Petrodollar which is a whole other conversation. The moral of the story here is that China, a US rival is helping Russia, a current enemy to get oil sold to help pay for Putin’s war. The Biden administration is quite literally castrating the US oil market and helping Putin invade Ukraine. This makes all those sanctions pretty useless. The reality is that the US could dominate the oil market and drop oil prices (somewhat limited by inflation) by flooding the supply but they don’t want to on purpose.
US: Ulterior Motives
I believe the crazy shift in coverage and outrage over the invasion of Ukraine over the last two years of covid hysteria has some kind of ulterior motive. I tweeted something that sort of sums up what I think it might be:
I was answering Clint’s question but I think what he was getting at, was that there’s a reason for the mass coverage of Ukraine. Let me take each one of those motives individually.
- Green New Deal Push: This one makes the most sense especially with the dramatic rise in oil prices. The whitehouse even had the balls to tell people to “just buy an electric vehicle” as if those are super cheap. I know that they have been trying force climate change narratives for years now and this presents maybe the best opportunity.
- Neoliberal Re-organization: This just means a power reshuffle. The WEF and other shadow powers are tired of Putin and want to remove him. Putin is a former member of the WEF and he’s obviously gone off agenda. They can’t have him screwing things for them.
- Chinese Push for reserve currency holder: This ties in with the Saudi’s accepting the Chinese Yuan for oil. Right now the US dollar is the standard reserve currency. Its been a long term goal of China to replace the dollar with the Yuan as standard reserve currency. A lot of Chinese financial policies and economic moves are towards this end. With Russia isolated, there is a good chance that China has jumped in to support them. The Chinese have to see this as an opportunity to build their hegemony around Asia. The oil deal also gives them another step up to the standard reserve currency.
Conclusion
I hope you enjoyed reading this obviously not short post. I’m still waiting to see if Putin will compromise to stop bloodshed or if NATO is willing to shed more blood by backing Putin more into a corner. I really don’t believe this would be happening if NATO had been disbanded in 1990. We face a tough reality especially with rising inflation and economic turmoil. I hope that things get better and improve. At this point, we are all along for the ride.
Thank you again.
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