Free Agent Spotlight: Carlos Rodon

One of the premier free agent pitchers available on this year’s market is Carlos Rodon. It wouldn’t be surprising if Rodon goes slightly under the radar with other free agent pitchers like Jacob Degrom and ageless wonder Justin Verlander. Rodon is a certified number 1 in the rotation starting pitcher. He pitched for the Chicago White Sox for 7 years. In those 7 years, he racked up some impressive stats:

Most notably look at his average 110 ERA+, his 710 strikeouts and career 3.79 ERA. Of course, this would be ignoring his percentages, only giving up an average of 8 hits per 9 innings, 1.1 HR per 9 and only 3.6 walks per 9. All very impressive. Rodon did hit free agency last season and ended up on a two year prove it deal with the San Fransciso Giants. He had a player opt out after the 2022 season, which he used. Let’s say that Rodon did not disappoint. Here are his stats for 2022 with those Giants: 

You will notice his bold numbers which indicate a league lead in those categories. In terms of FIP which means fielding independent pitching, the Giants had a decent defense with only 100 errors, good enough for 12th in NL. FIP usually indicates how well a pitcher prevents HR, BB, hit by pitch and of course causes strikeouts. Defense is a small part but a bigger part and the reason why Rodon will be highly sought after is his strikeouts. He racked up 237 SO in 178 IP. HIs 12 SO/9 is a league leading number. The reason for his strikeout totals being so high, is spin rate. But more accurately its spin rate, movement and command. 

Usually it’s bad for a starting pitcher to only have one or two really good pitches. Rodon is probably the exception to this rule. Technically, Rodon has four pitches: Fastball, Curveball, Changeup and Slider. Rodon threw his fastball 1,826 times this season. He threw his other pitches a grand total of 1,159. However, here’s the thing: Rodon’s fastball is a level above everyone else. Just check out some of these stat cast charts and graphs: 

As you can tell, his four seam fastball is twice as effective as his next best pitch in run value. But if you look closer, you can tell that Rodon uses his Fastball and Slider in combination to get hitters to swing and miss. But you might be wondering just how good is Rodon’s spin, movement and command really?

It’s not hard to think with the success of Rodon’s fastball and slider, and his consistent numbers year in and year out, that he won’t get a huge contract. I would imagine he’d ask for 4-6 years with an average annual value around 30-35 million dollars. He made 22 million with the Giants. Of course with two or three other number 1 starting pitchers available, he might have to bide his time for the right contract. 

Update: Wrote this before Rodon signed a 6 year 162 million dollar deal with the New York Yankees. I expected Rodon to be closer to 200 or 250 million for more years. However, I think the Yankees got a really deal.

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics and charts!

Free Agent Spotlight: Justin Verlander

At 39 years old, with 3 Cy Youngs, MVP, Triple Crown, Nine time All Star, and 2 time World Series Champion, Justin Verlander is still married to Kate Upton. On top of all that, Verlander came off Tommy John surgery that saw him miss the entire 2021 season. His latest Cy Young comes on November 16th of 2022. Verlander has been first in every category that matters for a pitcher. He holds numerous records. With 17 years of MLB experience, it seems like Verlander is an ageless wonder as he keeps getting better. Verlander was a free agent, fresh off his Cy Young and World Series victory. The conclusion of this article is foregone because what team doesn’t want a 40 year old Verlander with his laundry list of accomplishments. 

Just fun I guess let’s look at his stats throughout his successful long career:

Verlander has a load of great seasons, it’s hard to pick just one. So let’s focus on very bottom in his career totals. Throughout the course of his career he’s maintained a 132 ERA+, a 1.117 WHIP, a 3.36 FIP, less than one HR per 9, and over 9 strikeouts per 9 innings. A season like this alone would be worth a lot. You might be wondering how Verlander does it for nearly every season. What kind of pitches does he throw? How effective are those pitches? Well the answer is obviously whatever he’s doing is working. He throws six pitches: Fastball, Slider, Curveball, Changeup, Cutter, Sinker. In 2022 he only threw 4 of those: fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. To get an idea about which pitches he relies on most and are most effective, let’s take a look at this baseball savant chart involving run value:

Verlander has always been a fastball pitcher. It is easy to see why he throws the fastball because it sets up his other pitches. You can tell by the put away percent and hard hit percent differences. Pitches other than his fastball have lower hard hit percentages and higer put away percentages. Also notably higher K% which Verlander has 3,198 strikeouts in his career. A tell tale sign of a great pitcher is the amount of movement and spin on his pitches. Verlander is tops in the league in these categories especially with his fastball: 

As you can tell, his fastball movement and spin are really great. The same is true with his curveball. The curve was one of his best put away pitches, all set up by the fastball. With Verlander, you know his sequencing based on what his pitches do and the amount. He uses a fastball to set you up for the slider mostly or the curve. If those don’t work sometimes he throws a changeup. The sliders from baseball savant will paint an overall picture of just how good Verlander is to the rest of the league. Verlander recently said or rather his agent said he was seeking a 3 year- 130 million dollar deal. Similar to what Max Schrezer signed with the New York Mets. (3 years 43 million per year). Schrezer is just one year younger than Verlander. It’s probably a sensible ask from Verlander although you have to wonder if teams will be hesitant to give him that 3rd year. However, I think he will get closer to 50 million per year. It’s easy to say that Verlander has earned a huge contract. Statcast Sliders below: 

Update: Justin Verlander agreed to a 2 year 86 million dollar deal with a third year option with the New York Mets.

Thanks for reading. Be sure to follow and subscribe to the blog. Also check out my social media page.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant for the statistics and charts.