Introduction
The Tampa Bay Rays had a disappointing end to a decent season in 2022. The Rays are starting to use the Braves formula of locking up young talented players. The Rays haven’t brought in a ton of new players but they did let a few go. The good news that starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow will be back from his elbow injury. The Rays sort of missed him but not really because their rotation was just as good. The Rays have had a winning record in every season since 2018. Their reputation for being cheap and bad is nearly long gone. The Rays seem to find talent more often than not. In 2022, the Rays finished in 3rd place in the AL East, getting a wildcard spot with a record of 86-76. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks them the 12th best team with odds of +2500 to win the World Series.
Batting Lineup
The Rays have an interesting lineup that usually gets the job done. It’s a bit weird when you really look at low on base percentage but decent slugging percentages accompanied with low homerun totals. (exception being Arozarena) This isn’t necessarily bad because these Rays can hit the ball hard. The lineup has a strong top 4 and gets some depth from last season’s trade deadline haul. My standouts will be Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. These guys represent the future of the Rays. They need to be leaders by contributing both on and off the field. I like Yandy Diaz leading off, he led the team last season in OPS with a.824. At the both of the lineup I like Jose Siri and Christian Bethancourt. I think they bring depth because both of them are a threat to hit for a homerun. Overall, the Rays consistency makes you not doubt the ability of this lineup.
Starting Rotation
The Rays starting rotation is one of the best in baseball. It’s one of the best parts of the team until you get into the bullpen. It’s also one of the places they added a free agent in Zach Eflin. Eflin is a serviceable starter and will likely be a nice fourth or fifth starter. At the top, you have McClanhan who came in 6th in Cy Young voting in 2022. He also came in 7th for Rookie of the Year in 2021. My standout is Tyler Glasnow, who I mentioned in the introduction, comes back from injury and will be poised to have another great season. Ramussen and Springs will look to repeat their great seasons. Overall I like this rotation and expect them to keep opponents from scoring many runs if any.
Bullpen
In a similar vein to the starting rotation, the Rays bullpen ranks among the best in the league. They rank in the top 10 in categories that allow baserunners like WHIP. My standouts are easy to pick here: Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam. This closing duo has proven to be locked down. The Rays will need Fairbanks and Adam to continue their dominance. Like most MLB bullpens, you only need four or five guys to have great seasons to make the bullpen close out those tight 1 run games. The Rays 6 or 7 great guys back there and I expect them to be good.
Prediction
The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t flashy and they don’t wow in the offseason. However, the Rays tend to perform during the season and when it counts. I like their roster and the Rays have a track record of bringing in players that fit their scheme. Many teams hope to emulate this formula but fail. The problem for the Rays even with their great roster is the division in which they play. The AL East had three playoff teams last season. (NL East also had three playoff teams) The Rays were one of them and even more eye opening was the 3 game gap between them and the Baltimore Orioles. I believe the balanced schedule helps the Rays. If the pitching staff stays relatively healthy, I don’t see why this team can’t improve on its 2022 win total. The problem is Blue Jays and Yankees have significantly better pure hitting lineups. The AL east race will be tight. My prediction is a worst record of 84-74 and a best record of 90-72. The floor will be 4th place and the ceiling will be 2nd place. The Rays have potential to be better than their team looks on paper. But it’s hard to predict how well the lineup will hit and if their pitchers stay healthy.
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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!
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