Introduction
The St Louis Cardinals are a team of consistency and they are nearly always good. The Cardinals were not very active in free agency or the trade market this offseason. However, they notably lost two great players in Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina to retirement. The Cardinals were fairly quick to sign former Cubs catcher Wison Contreras to replace Molina. Their roster reminds unchange otherwise. The Cardinals went 93-69 with a first place finish in the NL Central. They were swept in the wild card by the Phillies. I was surprised they didn’t make more moves, especially for pitching. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks the Cardinals at 11th with an odds to win the World Series at +2500.
Batting Lineup
The Cardinals lineup is nothing short of scary from top to bottom. Of course, you can improve any lineup but this one, got a big update from last season. The signing of Contreras is an upgrade over Molina. At least in terms of hitting because Molina was more of a contact, bat to ball guy and Contreras is pure power. (see below) I believe the top 4 hitters are among the best top 4 hitters in the league. You can’t go wrong with Goldschmidt and Arenado. My standout immediately goes to Paul Goldschmidt who won MVP last season in the National League. As for the rest of the lineup, the Cardinals just need guys like Donovan, O’Neil and Nootbar and others to have career best seasons. The other thing to consider about these Cardinals is their defense is actually a big plus especially in the infield. Overall, it’s hard to hate this lineup against any team.
Starting Rotation
The Cardinals starting rotation can be considered among the best in the league. Admittedly when you look at their stats, certain starters struggled last season. The biggest problem was injuries when you look at Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz. The trio at the top who all had 32 starts were solid and good. Their rotation is led by long time ace, Adam Wainwright who will likely continue to repeat his success. My standout is Jack Flaherty. He got hurt last season and his potential is an ace. Flaherty can deliver numbers like an ace but he needs to stay healthy. I like this rotation and if they stay healthy, they will bounce back after a down year.
Bullpen
The Cardinals bullpen was decent but not great. The Cardinals lack of moves for the bullpen was an interesting non-move. The grunt of the bullpen lies with Ryan Helsey and Giovanny Gallegos. My standout here is Ryan Helsey who can throw absolute heat. Helsey had a strikeout rate of 13 per nine. He also finished 12th in the Cy Young voting. As for the other pitchers in the bullpen, you want to see them perform better, at least to their career averages. Overall, I wish the Cardinals made a move to upgrade the bullpen.
My Prediction
The St Louis Cardinals were a good team last year and they did improve their lineup. I believe the Cardinals are very capable of winning more games than last year especially if their pitching staff stays healthy. The NL Central is a favorable division to be in but their division rivals have gotten a bit better. I don’t think any team in that division is capable of passing the Cardinals yet. That being said, even if the Brewers and Cubs take steps forward, I think a balanced schedule keeps the Cardinals out in front. My prediction is a worst record of 94-68 and a best record of 98-64. The floor and ceiling is 1st place. Like I said, if the team stays healthy and performs similar to 2022, the Cardinals win the division even with a surging Brewers or Cubs team. They may want to consider making a move at the trade deadline to bolster the bullpen.
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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!
Technically Analytics 