Pre-Season Team Profile: New York Yankees

Introduction 

The New York Yankees have Aaron Judge and honestly it’s not fair. Sure, they didn’t get past the Astros but then again who can? I thought the Yankees would be more active in the free agent market. I do like their acquisition of Carlos Rodon. I think that bringing back Judge was just necessary if not required. The insane part is how much Judge carried their offense. The Yankees overall were still a very good team. But when you see their lineup and then look at the ranks in offense categories you realize it’s all mostly Judge. I don’t expect a step back from the team. I think what represents a good picture of the Yankees last season is their streaky nature. When the Yankees got hot early on in the season, it really carried them through that dreadful August as you can see from the game result chart below. The Yankees went 99-63 in 2022, winning the vaunted AL East. The boogeyman Astros still loom large. The only team the Yankees need to beat convincingly is the Astros. On that note, the MGM Power Rankings ranks them 2nd (above the Astros 4th) with an odds of +650. 

Batting Lineup

The story of the Yankees lineup is of two halves. On one half you have those players that maybe struggled or are young. In the other half, you have the real star power. The star power is obviously Judge who hit 62 homeruns and carried the whole team. Then you have Rizzo and Stanton who hit just slightly more homeruns combined than Judge. This is a top 5 middle of the lineup. When it comes to Donaldson, Bader, Hicks and Trevino you just want to see some improvement or a bounce back. Although in fairness to Bader, he is a defensive outfielder. My standout is Oswald Peraza who fangraphs think will get the nod at starting shortstop. Peraza showed promise in his cup of coffee of time in the Majors. Obviously any Yankees shortstop has big, hall of fame steps to fill. (Derek Jeter is a legend) Overall, I like this lineup but it can’t just be Aaron Judge carrying the team. (Astros got 9 good players, just saying) 

Starting Rotation

The Yankees starting rotation is one of the areas that was improved by free agency. I love the addition of Carlos Rodon. I think he’s one of the better lefty pitchers in the league. I have another post specifically on him and his fastball is very good with a lot of movement and spin. The rest of the rotation isn’t bad, all solid performances. However, my standout is Gerrit Cole. (I don’t like his name spelling, it’s spelled Garrett) Cole had an relatively underwhelming season despite his very high number of strikeouts. Overall, I think rotation is a plus and should be easily top 5.

Bullpen 

The Yankees bullpen was actually very good but riddled with injuries. I think when those injured pitchers (below) come back, the bullpen looks remarkably better. As for the guys who will start the season, I think the back end is solid. Obviously Clay Holmes will need to stay more consistent. The Yankees did manage to bolster their bullpen with the addition of Tommy Kahnle. My standout is the injured Michael King. Before he got hurt, he was having a season to remember. Just check out his stat line:

There aren’t many pitchers that were as effective as he was. His ability to not allow baserunners and ability to strike people out is why he was so good. Overall, with the injured guys coming back, I would give this bullpen a top 10 rating.

My Prediction  

The Yankees play in a tough division with good teams. I believe they can survive their divisional opponents. I think a balanced schedule helps them. The question: can they finally make the leap past the Astros? That’s a question that can only be answered by the season playing out. I’m not sure if the Yankees improved enough to give a big advantage. I think there’s a good shot they win the division again and probably advance to the ALCS for another rematch. My prediction is a worst record of 100-62 and a best record of 106-56. The floor and ceiling is 1st place in the AL East. I’m genuinely curious to see if the Yankees can get past the Astros because that’s been the only thing. 

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

Pre-Season Team Profile: San Diego Padres

Introduction 

The San Diego Padres came within a few games of the World Series. They looked to be a powerhouse team after their fantastic trade deadline in 2022. They acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell, and Josh Hader with hopes to run the table. Unfortunately Soto and Bell struggled a bit. They came up short but that didn’t stop general manager A.J. Preller from doubling down and going even harder in free agency. The Padres acquired star shortstop Xander Bogaerts in free agency. The roster looks pretty good on the surface, particularly the lineup. Many critics and myself have questions if their rotation is on the same level as the Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Braves, Phillies. The rotation certainly pulled its weight in 2022. The biggest question will be how maligned star Fernando Tatis Jr will look coming off an injury plus a reduced 80 suspension for steriod use. Tatis is predictably the last piece of the puzzle because he has all the skill potential to be that guy that carries a team. This past year has left many questioning his leadership abilities and if he can play at the level that is expected. Last season in 2022, the Padres went a respectable 89-73 and finished in 2nd place in the NL west. The MGM Power Ranking list puts them 3rd with an odds of +1000 to win the World Series. 

Batting Lineup

The Padres batting lineup features one of the more solid middle of the lineups in the Major Leagues. Of course, we have to wait until April 20th to see what it looks like completed with Fernando Tatis able to return to play. Let’s talk about the players that surround batters 2-5. Starting at the top, we have the most dependable replacement shortstop/second baseman Ha-Seong Kim. Kim did a really solid job at filling in for Tatis in his absence. Then you have the other two free agent acquitsions in Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter. Cruz will look to have a bounce back after a down year last year. Carpenter is coming off an injury and will be interested if he can continue to hit as consistently with regular at-bats. At 8 and 9 you have Austin Nola and Trent Grisham. Trent Grisham really showed out in the playoffs to his credit. The middle lineup where my three standouts live. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Juan Soto are the most important of this Padres lineup. If these three guys can have career best seasons, the Padres can win a lot of games. Add in Tatis and Jake Croenworth, and you have 5 guys who give you a lot of hits and a lot of power. Overall, you like the chances that the Padres are a high scoring team. 

Starting Rotation

The Padres rotation is a question relative to other top teams as I referenced in the introduction. This isn’t to say that the rotation lacks star power or talent but rather depth. Overall you can see their ERA, innings and strikeouts are all good. Yu Darvish just signed a six year extension, he’s just getting better with age at 36. Joe Musgrove has been killing it for nearly 2 years now. Blake Snell could actually be even better than he was. Nick Martinez was solid but will need to pitch more innings. Then you have Seth Lugo. Lugo is my standout because he could make or break this rotation. Lugo is a former Mets reliever and he was always great in that role. His previous starting experience has gone badly. If Lugo can be a starter with 3.00 ERA or better, 150 innings and 180 strikeouts, I think the Padres rotation is comparable to those top teams.  

Bullpen 

The Padres bullpen projects to be better than the stats you see on the page. They were obviously solid last season. My standout is Josh Hader. I think if Josh Hader can just be himself again then the Padres bullpen has no problem being in the top 10. The guys returning from last season are solid and if they continue that trend, there’s no reason why the bullpen won’t be good. 

My Prediction  

The San Diego Padres have a legitimate team and they will be winning a lot of games. Now as a Mets fan, remembering the painful wildcard elimination at their hand, I can tell you they are more scary. The problem is when you look at their division, the Giants, Diamondbacks and Rockies are no threat. However, the Los Angeles Dodgers reside in the NL West as well. The Dodgers track record tells me they will find a way to finish ahead no matter what. I’m not saying there isn’t a chance for the Padres to overcome but it’s so slim. Balanced schedule will help a bit. There’s no doubt they will be in the playoffs again. My prediction is a worst record of 95-67 and a best record of 105-57. The Padres ceiling is first place and the floor is second place. Now the keen eyed among you will notice, I didn’t put their wins in either category above the Dodgers. I really believe it’s going to be closer than last year but the Dodgers eek them out by a few games. 

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

World Baseball Classic: Amazing Baseball

I hope you watched the World Baseball Classic (WBC) in 2023 because if you missed the past two weeks, then you missed a lot of great baseball. That is my overall takeaway from this tournament. Nearly every was interesting in some way and offered some kind of drama. In terms of upsets, there weren’t too many but Mexico and Australia both made it past previous points they hadn’t been. This post isn’t necessarily a recap, it will be just a few thoughts I have about the WBC. I’ll start with some teams that were impressive in semifinals/finals. Then I’ll move on to the injury and timing controversies. Last, I want to talk about how great this tournament is for baseball.

Japan emerges Victorious!

We’ll start with obviously amazing semifinals and championship game. In the semifinals you had USA vs. Venezuela which featured the Trea Turner show. On the other side you had Japan vs. Mexico which featured the Randy Arozarena show. In the USA vs. Venezuela game, there was drama as it went back and forth. But in the 8th inning down by two, Trea Turner hits go-ahead grand slam to clinch a ticket to the finals. In the Japan vs. Mexico match, Randy makes an amazing catch and clutch hits for Mexico. But Japan’s superior hitting skills overcome, with a walkoff double to punch their ticket to the finals. In the finals, we can get a back and forth homerun competition, with the USA and Japan trading blows. But in the sweetest ending of all, All-World Superstar Pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani faces his LA Angels teammate, future Hall of Famer Mike Trout in the bottom of the 9th with two outs. In the most incredible at-bat, Ohtani throws a third strike nasty slider to strikeout Trout to end the game. All time moment between the best players to ever play.

Edwin Diaz and Jose Altuve Injured!

After beating the Dominican Republic in the last game of Pool play, Puerto Rico celebrated on the field because they were headed to the quarterfinals. However in an unfortunate and freaky turn of events, Mets star closer Edwin Diaz fell to the ground with a hurt knee. It turn out that while celebrating Diaz tore a tendon in his knee. This was devastating news to Mets fans and Puerto Rico fans. Diaz is out for the season. Another injury occured to Jose Altuve, although less severe. While playing against the USA in the quarterfinal, Altuve was hit in the hand by Rockies closer Daniel Bard. In another unfortunate turn of events, it broke his hand. Altuve’s timeline to return is eight to ten weeks.

The controversy here is that people are arguing these two players may not have gotten injured if they sat out the WBC. However, the counter argument is that you could injured almost anywhere. I think it’s a two part problem, one problem is you can get injured anywhere. You can’t fix that. The second problem is the timing of the WBC. It may seem counter-intuitive but moving it during the All Star break or after the season might be better. I just think that many players coming from a spring training environment (Relaxed) to a adrenaline filled playoff, game 7 of the World Series environment (stressed) is probably a little jarring physically. Plus the fact that pitchers aren’t necessarily built up and stretched out. I just think the level of play could be much higher with better timing. Also in mid-season, there is less chance of over-working injuries.

Conclusion-Great for Baseball!

The WBC was absolutely one of the best two weeks of baseball I’ve ever watched. Trust me, I watched nearly part of every single game. The environment in Pool A, located in Taiwan was electric and exciting. The quarter, semi and finals were all amazing games with huge moments. Even players expressed that WBC was something above even a normal playoff/world series game. I think it would be in the interests of MLB to make this tournament more accessible. They should advertise it and push players to participate. With the right marketing and a large number of MLB, NPB, KBO and other leagues’ stars it could be something similar to the FIFA World Cup. They might even think about expanding the field although I felt like 20 teams was plenty. But overall I just thought was an entertaining and very watchable two weeks of baseball. I’m really looking forward to 2026.

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Pre-Season Team Profile: Houston Astros

Introduction 

The Houston Astros won the 2022 World Series by beating the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2. The World Champs return with most of their lineup intact with one very important addition in Jose Abreu. The rest of the roster remains unchanged except for the significant departure of Justin Verlander, who won the AL Cy Young. The Astros have proven the last six years or so with six straight ALCS appearances that they are a dynasty. There isn’t much weakness on this team which consistently finds a way to win games. It’s very impressive. The only question to ask is can the Astros repeat as World Series Champions? The MGM Power Ranking list puts them 4th with an odds of +650 to repeat a World Series victory. 

Batting Lineup

The Astros lineup is easily one of the best. Even their catcher Maldonado hit 15 homeruns last year. They did switch up a few players but you can’t tell. Chas McComick slots into a starting role at 8th. Most importantly the new first basemen, Jose Abreu will bat 5th behind Yordan “YorDONG” Alvarez. I thought bringing in Abreu from the White Sox was brilliant on the part of the Astros front office. The starter at first base last season was Yuli Gurriel who had an slash line of .242/.288/.360/.647/ with a 84 OPS+. Meanwhile Abreu had an OPS+ of 133. This is a major upgrade for the Astros. My standout is Jeremy Pena, who showed out during the playoffs, winning ALCS and World Series MVP. I think Pena has done a brilliant job of replacing Carlos Correa. However you’d like to see some progression in the form of more consistent hitting. Overall, I think any opposing pitcher facing this lineup should be a little terrified of this lineup because it’s very good. 

Starting Rotation 

The Astro’s starting rotation is just as ridiculously good as their lineup. If you’ll notice all their pitchers are now homegrown talents. They may have lost Verlander to my Mets but they still have 5 really great pitchers. My standout is Lance McCullers Jr. who has the potential to win a Cy Young if he stays healthy. Otherwise I think Valdez and Javier bring one of the better one-two punches in the majors. At the back end you have Garcia and Urquidy who were solid. Overall I love this rotation and expect them to be in the top 10 of most categories. 

Bullpen

The Astros bullpen was absolutely locked down last season and you can see why. There isn’t really a bad pitcher in this bullpen. The Astro’s pitching coaches have seriously figured out how to get the best of these guys. It’s really hard to pick a standout but Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero have a case to be it. In fact, I don’t know if there is a better 7th, 8th and 9th combination than Abreu, Montero, Pressly. Possibly the Mets with Robertson, Ottavino and Diaz. But regardless, the Astro’s bullpen will be in the top 5 of all bullpens in the league.  

My Prediction 

The Astros have to be favorites to win the World Series again. I’ll be straight with you if you are fan of the Astros then you obviously know how great this team is. But if you are a fan of another team like I am, I am scared for my Mets to make it all the way to the World Series just to face these Astros. That being said, in their division I don’t see any team coming too close just yet. The Mariners could certainly start to challenge them. I almost certainly expect regardless of record, the Astros to be back in the ALCS. My prediction is a worst record of 98-64 and a best record of 107-55. The floor and ceiling is 1st place in the AL West. It’s hard to doubt the Astros now.

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

Pre-Season Team Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

Introduction 

The Philadelphia Phillies came within a few games of a World Series trophy. It was a surprising and unexpected run for a team that consistently underperformed. I’ll give the same disclaimer here as I did for the Braves, I’m not a big fan of the Phillies but I’ll try to be as fair as possible in evaluating their team. I attended one game in 2022, it happened to be Mets vs. Phillies. The Mets ended up shutting them out 6-0, this was in August. The Phillies also had a great offseason, retooling their lineup, starting rotation and bullpen. They brought in quality and star players like Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, and Craig Kimbrel. The Phillies are actually one of the few teams who I would expect to easily surpass their 2022 record of 87-75, good enough for 3rd place. As a Mets fan, I respect this team. Also for the record, another player who is currently hurt in Bryce Harper is a guy who I’d love if he was on my team. The MGM Power Ranking List ranks the Philllies at 5th with a +1400 odds to win the World Series. 

Batting Lineup 

The Phillies lineup is one of the deeper and better lineups in the Major Leagues. I believe that bringing Trea Turner in was a smart move short term. I think with his combination of power and speed, it’s win-win. Unfortunately for a 10 year contract, speed doesn’t age well with Turner being 29 already. Schwarber, Hoskins and JT Realmuto are a solid core of power hitters. The Phillies lack no power in this lineup. JT Realmuto is one of the premier offensive catchers in the game. Then you have more power starting with 5 hitter Nick Castellanos, Darick Hall, and Alec Bohm. Bohm struggled to start the season but eventually found his groove late in the season. The bottom of the lineup features two defensive studs in Stott and Marsh. It’s hard to pick a standout, but it’s Trea Turner because there’s pressure to perform for 300 million dollars. Overall, this has to be one of the most dangerous lineups and will get more dangerous when Bryce Harper returns in July.

Starting Rotation 

The Phillies rotation is good but often found themselves in the middle of the pack. Four of five starters return with the addition of Taijuan Walker. In another post, I praised this move by the Phillies. I believe that Walker will certainly be worth the 4 year contract. He’s capable of being a solid number 2 and a great 3 or 4. Obviously Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are one of the best 1-2 punch top rotation guys. Nola and Wheeler are my standouts because they really carried the Phillies in the playoffs and I expect them to do more of the same. To round it out, you have Suarez and Falter who were actually solid. Overall, I like the rotation. Maybe it’s not in the top 5 but possibly in the top 15. 

Bullpen 

The Phillies bullpen really came to play in the playoffs. During the season, their ranks were middle of the road. It’s going to be hard to repeat that same performance level. However, the Phillies added a few upgrades in Craig Kimbrel and Matt Strahm. My standout was traded for in Detroit, Gregory Soto. I think Soto will maintain that high level of performance that kept the Phillies rolling deep into the playoffs. I think we also saw the emergence of Seranthony Dominguez and confirmed Jose Alvardo is really good. Overall, you have to expect at least a similar level of performance to 2022. 

My Prediction 

I believe when the Phillies get Bryce Harper back sometime in July, they will be just as competitive as the Mets and Braves. The Phillies will also get helped by the balanced schedule. They were very bad against divisional opponents. I think they made offseason moves that immediately improved their team and I respect that. However when you take into account their division rivals and the weakness they had last year (defense still problematic), they still may only be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NL East. Despite this, it will be the only team I put their worst record above last year’s win total. My prediction is a worst record of 89-73 and a best record of 102-60. The Phillies have a floor of 3rd place and a ceiling of 1st place. As a reminder, I’ve decided due to the extremely competitive nature of the NL East that all three teams, the Mets, Braves and Phillies have the same best record. There’s honestly no way to predict the order but I believe the Phillies land back in third and get another wildcard run. 

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

Pre-Season Team Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

Introduction

The Los Angeles Dodgers have created a dynasty since the early 2010s until now of dominance. The Dodgers rarely fail to miss the playoffs and haven’t had a losing season in nearly a decade. The Dodgers also seem to find good players from their farm system very often. If you check below, I posted a list of all the free agents and where they went or stayed. Out of 17 free agents only future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw returned to the organization. The offseason was underwhelming for a Dodgers team that lost 16 players, especially a few players who were big contributors. Players like Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Tyler Anderson and Craig Kimbrel to name a few. To be fair, the Dodger did sign a few good free agents and made a few trades. By now you just have to trust that minor league system to churn out good players. In 2022, the Dogders went for a near record 111-51 finishing well ahead of the San Deigo Padres for 1st place. Their lead was an eye watering 22 games. The MGM Power Ranking List puts them at 6th with an odds of +750 to win the World Series.

Batting Lineup 

The Dodgers batting lineup may have lost a few really good players but this lineup still ranks among the top 10, especially the top of the lineup. I would argue the bottom of the lineup has a lot of question marks. Let’s start with the top, Mookie Betts is the definition of a 5 tool baseball player. Betts is one of the more complete players in the league. Freddie Freeman is one of the best pure hitters in the game. Freeman lost out to my Mets guy Jeff McNeil for the batting title by 0.1 percent. Then you have Will Smith and Max Muncy who also just hit really good. JD Martinez represents their only addition via free agency to the lineup. I would expect Martinez to bounce back this year after final season with the Red Sox. After Martinez, it gets a bit less certain with Gavin Lux and Trayce Thomspon. We’ll see if these two can step into real starting roles and be successful. My standout is Gavin Lux. I’m curious to see how handles hitting and also his defense at shortstop. Chris Taylor is good when he gets hot. At the bottom, the rookie Miguel Vargas will have to prove he’s legit. Overall, I think the top 1 thru 5 will carry this Dodgers offense no matter how the bottom 4 perform. 

Starting Rotation

The Dodgers starting rotation took less hits in free agency and still remains one of the best. They rank in the top 10 of most categories. The rotation is anchored by Clayton Kershaw who doesn’t seem to be slowing down even with his 14 years under his belt. Julio Urias and Tony Gonoslin were even better than Kershaw somehow. Gonoslin is actually just filling in for injured pitcher Walker Buheler. Then comes the Dodgers free agent acquisition of Noah Syndergaard. As a Mets fan, I’m familiar with Syndergaard’s game. He is coming off Tommy John surgery from about a year and a half ago. I think it was a good move to bring him in because when Syndergaard is at his best, he’s one of the best pitchers to do it.  To round out the rotation, the oft-injured Dustin May slots in. May is a great pitcher but can’t seem to stay healthy. Overall, it’s hard to find a flaw in the rotation with the exception of health concerns. 

Bullpen 

The Dodgers bullpen has seen some changes but remains in good shape. The bullpen in a similar fashion to the starting rotation has a lot of top 10 ranks in many categories. To emphasize this point, the run differential in 2022 was 847 runs for and 513 runs against. That’s over 300 runs difference. A lot of that is because of the literal 5 guys with ERAs below 3. My standout is Shelby MIller and Phil Bickford because they need to get on the same level. Overall, I like the bullpen and expect them to be good again. 

My Prediction 

The Dodgers didn’t exactly spurge in free agency for a reason. That reason is soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani. Rumor has it that the Dodgers are trying to reset their luxury cap tax to make room for him. (Ohtani is expected to get 50++million per year) However, despite this the Dodgers may seem weaker than you might expect. The Dodgers as I mentioned have a solid track record of being good at winning in the regular season. They failed to beat their division rival in the playoffs who they gained a 22 game margin on in the regular season in the Padres. Unfortunately the Padres aren’t going away but I expect the Dodgers to be competitive and not make it easy. The Padres did a lot this offseason but the Dodgers did win 111 games last year. A regression only makes sense in that context because even if they won 10 games less or 15 games less, that still puts them near the top of the league. That’s crazy. My prediction is a worst record of 98-64 and a best record of 111-51. The Dodgers floor is second place and their ceiling is 1st place. I think the biggest difference between the Dodgers and Padres is pitching. I really believe the Dodgers’ whole pitching staff is better than the Padres whole staff. The real question is can they win in the playoffs again?

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

Pre-Season Team Profile: Atlanta Braves

Introduction 

The Atlanta Braves are a great team and they had a really impressive season in 2022. Before I go into this one, I just have to say that I’m a New York Mets fan. So understandably I’m a tad biased and still a little satly about what transpired at the end of the season. However, I promise I won’t shortchange my analysis. The Braves were active this offseason, making a number of trades and free agent acquisitions. The Braves are admittedly one of the smarter teams in the league. They have gone about locking up any and all young and talented players long term. I may not like the Braves but I can respect how they run that franchise. The trade that stands out to me is with the Oakland Athletics for Sean Murphy. The Braves had a lot of depth catching but decided to bolster even further with one of the better catchers in the league. The Braves went 101-61 in 2022, finishing in 1st place over the Mets in a tiebreaker scenario. The last season series vs. Mets really broke Mets players and fans alike. (As a Braves fan I imagine that feels good) However, the Braves didn’t fare so well against the red hot Phillies in the divisional round. I was shocked by this, the Braves had been beating up the Phils all season long. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks the Braves at 7th with an odds of +1000 to win the World Series. 

Batting Lineup

There isn’t much to say about this lineup other than the fact it’s really good. The weak spot, if you can call it that, is near the bottom with Rosario and Ozuna. Although Ozuna is very dangerous if he gets hot, he can smack a homerun. The rest of the line up contains some of the best pure hitters in the game. At the top you have Ronald Acuna Jr who hasn’t been the same since his injury but when he’s at his best, he can hit 40 homeruns and steal 40 bases very easily. I often say Ronald Acuna Jr is a player I would love to be on my team (Sacrilege I know) Then you have runner up to Rookie of Year in Michael Harris II along with Young Thick Austin Riley. These two will be hitting anywhere from 60 to 80 homeruns for years to come. It doesn’t stop there, Matt Olson and Sean Murphy are next. Matt Olson had a down year so expect him to bounce back. My standout will be Vaughn Grissom. Grissom showed potential in limited time last season. He has big shoes to fill with the departure of Dansby Swanson. I think given a full season, the Braves were probably smart to let Swanson walk. Overall, there aren’t many lineups you would take over this Braves lineup. 

Starting Rotation 

The Braves rotation is also very good. I think the only pitcher that really struggled last season was Charlie Morton. But I believe Morton will have a bounce back year. Max Fried is basically a left-handed version of Jacob DeGrom. One interesting note, and my standout is Mike Soroka who has been injured for nearly two years. He was very good when he last played and I believe if he actually returns it’s a huge gift for the Braves. Spencer Strider is another great pitcher who showed some immaturity last season but his stats don’t lie about how good he is. Strider has won me over a little bit though by saying he was going to dress up like Charlie Sheen’s character Rick Vaughn from Major League (My favorite baseball movie). Overall, you can expect a top 10 ranking from this rotation. 

Bullpen

The Braves bullpen is absolutely loaded up with studs. The Braves made a few moves to upgrade this bullpen as well. They brought in Joe Jimenez, Lucas Luetge and Dennis Santana. My standout is AJ Minter. Minter has been one of the best relivers in the game for a while now. I think he’s the natural leader and will most likely put up the numbers to back it up. Overall I think the Braves will have a solid bullpen and with their offensive ability, they won’t be stressed too hard. 

My Prediction 

The Braves will be just as good or maybe better in 2023. I just want to show this timeline of their season which shows wins in green and losses in red. You’ll notice for the first two months they were bad with a lot of red. Then in about June, the green starts to dominate. 

The Braves play in the NL East so this means competing against the Mets who spent 400 million this offseason. It means competing against the Phillies fresh off a World Series appearance. I think the Braves will benefit from the balanced schedule. I’m having a mental crisis trying to figure out how to predict the outcome in the NL East. So fair warning, the Braves, Mets and Phillies are getting the same projected best record. The worst record will determine the order. My prediction is a worst record of 90-72 and a best record of 102-60. The floor is 2nd place and the ceiling is first place. I know as a Mets homer you can take this with a grain of salt. But you have to admit the Braves, Phillies and Mets have the potential to all finish with 100 wins or more. It’s so tough to judge who will be at the top.

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics!

Pre-Season Team Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

Introduction 

The Toronto Blue Jays had another great offseason bringing in some top line free agents and making decent trades. The Blue Jays brought hitters like Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield. They also brought in a starting pitcher in Chris Bassitt. Overall I like most of these moves. The most questionable is Brandon Belt who struggled mightly in San Fransicso. Overall the Blue Jays were a good team last year especially with hitting as they ranked top 10 in most categories. This could be the year the Blue Jays finally break through and make a deep playoff run. In 2022, the Blue Jays went 92-70 finishing in 2nd place behind the New York Yankees. They ended up losing in the wild card to the Seattle Mariners. I tend to put the Mariners and Blue Jays in the same category of team. Both teams have rosters with the potential to make a deep playoff run but haven’t quite done it yet. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks the Blue Jays at 8th with +1400 odds to win the World Series. 

Batting Lineup 

The Blue Jays lineup is very solid from top to bottom. They present no easy outs for teams. I particularly love the 1-6 hitters. In the top 6 hitters only one of them didn’t hit more than 20 homeruns. You’ll also notice the batting averages are closer to .300 than not. This means these six hitters are dangerous in any situation. The addition of Varsho adds to the lineup and just gives them more fire power. The back end of the lineup lacks the pop and average in the front and middle. My standout is Vladmir Guerrero Jr. Vladdy needs to continue to lead this team and put up ridiculous numbers. I feel like this lineup is one of the stronger ones even among the teams ahead. George Springer is an absolute nightmare leadoff guy. He can hurt you with his power or his contact. Bo Bichette is the same. Overall I love this lineup and the sky’s the limit, this team could be the highest scoring offense in the league.

Starting Rotation 

The Blue Jays rotation looks very similar to their lineup in that it’s absolutely loaded. My standout is Jose Berrios. His numbers in 2022, don’t reflect the type of pitcher he can be. He will need to turn it around especially for a playoff series. Manoah and Gausman are two of the best pitchers in the league. I think they can shove for ‘23. As for Chris Bassitt, I can tell since he was with the Mets last season, that he’s amazing. Bassitt is one of those pitchers who gives six innings regardless of if he gives up 1 run or 7 runs. In fact, he seems to get better as the game goes on. Overall, if this rotation stays healthy and has good performances there’s no reason they aren’t in the top 10. 

Bullpen 

The Blue Jays bullpen is one of the better ones in the league. They bolster their bullpen by trading for Erik Swanson. There isn’t much to say because nearly every pitcher had a season with the exception of Trevor Richards and Mitch White. These two are my standouts because if they can step it up then this bullpen might be one of the best. I think the Jay’s bullpen will be underrated because there aren’t a lot of household names. But Jorn Romano should get more love for what he’s doing. Excluding his first season, Romano has been pretty close to lights out. (Check his stats below) Overall you really like what this bullpen can do, if they can repeat a similar level of performance in 2023. 

My Prediction 

The Blue Jays are one of the better teams in the league. Obviously they haven’t found that playoff success yet. My expectation is that the Blue Jays will pull closer to the Yankees. The possibility that Judge repeats that historic season is so small. The Blue Jays pitching staff improved slightly while the Yankees did get Carlos Rodon. In all honesty, in my opinion if the Blue Jays can handle the Yankees then they just need to worry about beating Houston in the playoffs like literally everyone else. The balanced schedule certainly helps them. My prediction is a worst record of 90-72 and a best record of 99-63. The Blue Jays have a floor of 3rd place and a ceiling of 1st place. I really believe that the Blue Jays if it all goes right come in ahead of the Yankees in first. If the Blue Jays have it go very wrong or get injured, I can see the Rays topping them for 2nd. Regardless, I think the Blue Jays make the playoffs again. 

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics

Pre-Season Team Profile: Chicago White Sox

Introduction 

The Chicago White Sox were the definition of mid when it comes to baseball in the 2022 season. Nearly every stat category ranks near the middle including their 2022 record of 81-81. The White Sox had a tough season dealing with injuries and bad play. The White Sox brought in a few free agents but nothing that will totally change their outlook. They notably lost Jose Abreu who was one of their most consistent hitters. The biggest free agent acquisition was Andrew Benintendi. Unfortunately they won’t have star closer Liam Hendriks due to cancer at least to start the season. The White Sox came in 2nd place, 11 games behind the Guardians. The White Sox are a much more talented team than their record shows. They just need to play up to that potential. The MGM Power Ranking List ranks them at 9th with odds of +2500 to win the World Series. 

Batting Lineup 


The White Sox batting lineup probably doesn’t look all that intimidating because the 2022 stats just weren’t great. However, when this lineup is at its best I think it’s one of the better all around lineups in the league. You’ll notice immediately despite the struggle for power, the White Sox mostly hit for average. That doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of power hitting, with guys like Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn. I really like the leadoff and 2nd hitter, Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi bring high on base percentages and high batting averages. The White Sox have a classic top lineup with a few guys who can get on base then some power guys to bring them in. They will need to hope for better production from 7th down to 9th. My standout is Eloy Jimenez. Jimenez will need to be the power bat in this lineup. He will be replacing Jose Abreu. If Jimenez can’t find the power and Andrew Vaughn can’t either, this team will struggle again. Overall I like this lineup if they perform up to their potential. 

Starting Rotation 

With the exception of Dylan Cease, the whole starting rotation underperformed last season. The White Sox added Mike Clevinger, who proceeded to immediately come under investigation for domestic abuse. (Piece of shit) If practically the whole rotation has a bounce back season, the White Sox can win more games than 81. My standout is Lucas Giolito who really struggled. Giolito is capable of great things just look at career stats, in years that he’s at his best, he can give you a mid-3 ERA and 170 IP. (See Giolito’s stats below) The White Sox need Giolito to be good and they need Dylan Cease to continue to dominate. Overall I like the rotation but they will need to replace Clevinger in my opinion. 

Bullpen 

The White Sox bullpen is incomplete without Liam Hendriks and Garrett Crochet who are out with injuries. What’s left of the bullpen is about half good and half not so good. The White Sox need more relievers to step up this year. My standout is Joe Kelly who has been good for the past few seasons but just didn’t have it last season. Kelly had 2.86 ERA in 2021. Gravesman, Bummer, and Lambert all gave good performances and will need to repeat them. The White Sox might think about adding at the trade deadline for their bullpen. Overall I like the bullpen if Hendriks comes back. 

My Prediction 

I don’t believe the White Sox improve their team significantly this offseason. I think they will have some kind of bounce back because last season was just so bad. The question with the White Sox is how do they compare to their division rivals? On paper they are a more talented team than most of the teams in that AL central. I also don’t think the White will regress any further, they can only be better. I also don’t see the Guardians taking a step back. I think the Twins are very close behind the White Sox, possibly tied. My prediction is a worst record of 81-81 and a best record of 87-75. The floor is 3rd place and the ceiling is 2nd place in the AL Central. My thinking is that if White Sox perform to their ability they get 2nd place behind the Guardians. I think if the Twins outperform expectations they can finish in a tie or within a game. If you are a White Sox fan, root for the team to meet that potential. 

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Pre-Season Team Profile: Seattle Mariners

Introduction 

The Seattle Mariners were dealt a tough hand in the playoffs but proved they were a good team. The Mariners have had an interesting offseason with a few trades and a few free agents. The Mariners have a tough hill to climb to dethrone their divisional rival and World Series champion, Houston Astros. They lost to those Astros in the ALDS. I believe the Mariners did at least try to retool their roster. I’m not sure that it’s enough to beat Houston. In 2022, the Mariners went 90-72 with a finish in 2nd place in the AL West. Their best additions were Teoscar Hernadez and Kolten Wong. I really liked their trade deadline move last season to bring in ace Luis Castillo. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks the Mariners at 10th with an odds to win the World Series at +1600.

Batting Lineup 

The Mariners lineup is very respectable and improved. I like the additions of Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong, they bring certified hitters to the lineup. The lineup has a lot of depth. I like what Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford and AJ Pollock can do, especially as the 6-7-8 hitters. The best part of the lineup remains at the top with Ty France and Eugenio Suarez. Surprising a lot of people was Suarez because he mashed in 2022. The gem of this Mariners lineup and team is 2022 Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez. I think Rodriguez is the real deal. He is my standout. When you look at his rookie year, you might expect him to outperform it. This kid has so much potential. I think the strong lineup behind him will only help as he matures into one of the league’s best players. Check out Rodriguez’s stats from of all time rookie season below. Overall, I think the Mariners have a solid lineup. 

Starting Rotation 

The Mariners starting rotation is one of the better rotations in baseball. They have a legit 1-4 featuring a former Cy Young winner. Robbie Ray won the Cy Young in 2021. Unfortunately he didn’t pull off quite the same numbers as 2021. Ray is still a great pitcher. Obviously, I’ve mentioned Luis Castillo, who will be my standout. Castillo along with Ray gives them a very good 1-2 punch in my opinion. You also can’t sleep on Kirby and Gilbert who were solid to great in 2022. If the Mariners can get the same type of high level performance in 2023, they have a chance to keep up with the Astros. 

Bullpen 

The Mariners bullpen was surprisingly good because they had great performances out of a couple of pitchers. The guys like Paul Sewald (Former Met), Andres Munoz, Penn Murfee and Chris Flexen were stalwarts for the Mariners. I’ve said in previous team reviews that all you need is a few pitchers to have good seasons and you have a great bullpen. The Mariners ranked in the top 10 for most stats except for HR/9. My standout is Penn Murfee who had a heck of a season. The Mariners need him to repeat it. Overall I like the bullpen, I think they can replicate their 2022 performances.  

My Prediction 

The Seattle Mariners have a tough hill if they want to win the division. I believe they are capable of repeating a similar win total or possibly surpassing it. The balanced schedule helps them because any time you face the Houston Astros less, that’s a good thing. I think the Angels and Rangers will be close behind but not ahead of the Mariners unless something goes very wrong. I would expect a fairly competitive AL West in 2023. My prediction is for a worst record of 89-73 and a best record of 95-67. The floor and ceiling is second place. I would be hopeful as a Mariners fan that each season from here on out, you get a few wins closer to the Houston Astros until you unseat them. 

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Pre-Season Team Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

Introduction 

The St Louis Cardinals are a team of consistency and they are nearly always good. The Cardinals were not very active in free agency or the trade market this offseason. However, they notably lost two great players in Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina to retirement. The Cardinals were fairly quick to sign former Cubs catcher Wison Contreras to replace Molina. Their roster reminds unchange otherwise. The Cardinals went 93-69 with a first place finish in the NL Central. They were swept in the wild card by the Phillies. I was surprised they didn’t make more moves, especially for pitching. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks the Cardinals at 11th with an odds to win the World Series at +2500. 

Batting Lineup 

The Cardinals lineup is nothing short of scary from top to bottom. Of course, you can improve any lineup but this one, got a big update from last season. The signing of Contreras is an upgrade over Molina. At least in terms of hitting because Molina was more of a contact, bat to ball guy and Contreras is pure power. (see below) I believe the top 4 hitters are among the best top 4 hitters in the league. You can’t go wrong with Goldschmidt and Arenado. My standout immediately goes to Paul Goldschmidt who won MVP last season in the National League. As for the rest of the lineup, the Cardinals just need guys like Donovan, O’Neil and Nootbar and others to have career best seasons. The other thing to consider about these Cardinals is their defense is actually a big plus especially in the infield. Overall, it’s hard to hate this lineup against any team. 

Starting Rotation 

The Cardinals starting rotation can be considered among the best in the league. Admittedly when you look at their stats, certain starters struggled last season. The biggest problem was injuries when you look at Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz. The trio at the top who all had 32 starts were solid and good. Their rotation is led by long time ace, Adam Wainwright who will likely continue to repeat his success. My standout is Jack Flaherty. He got hurt last season and his potential is an ace. Flaherty can deliver numbers like an ace but he needs to stay healthy. I like this rotation and if they stay healthy, they will bounce back after a down year.

Bullpen 

The Cardinals bullpen was decent but not great. The Cardinals lack of moves for the bullpen was an interesting non-move. The grunt of the bullpen lies with Ryan Helsey and Giovanny Gallegos. My standout here is Ryan Helsey who can throw absolute heat. Helsey had a strikeout rate of 13 per nine. He also finished 12th in the Cy Young voting. As for the other pitchers in the bullpen, you want to see them perform better, at least to their career averages. Overall, I wish the Cardinals made a move to upgrade the bullpen.  

My Prediction 

The St Louis Cardinals were a good team last year and they did improve their lineup. I believe the Cardinals are very capable of winning more games than last year especially if their pitching staff stays healthy. The NL Central is a favorable division to be in but their division rivals have gotten a bit better. I don’t think any team in that division is capable of passing the Cardinals yet. That being said, even if the Brewers and Cubs take steps forward, I think a balanced schedule keeps the Cardinals out in front. My prediction is a worst record of 94-68 and a best record of 98-64. The floor and ceiling is 1st place. Like I said, if the team stays healthy and performs similar to 2022, the Cardinals win the division even with a surging Brewers or Cubs team. They may want to consider making a move at the trade deadline to bolster the bullpen.

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics! 

Pre-Season Team Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

Introduction 

The Tampa Bay Rays had a disappointing end to a decent season in 2022. The Rays are starting to use the Braves formula of locking up young talented players. The Rays haven’t brought in a ton of new players but they did let a few go. The good news that starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow will be back from his elbow injury. The Rays sort of missed him but not really because their rotation was just as good. The Rays have had a winning record in every season since 2018. Their reputation for being cheap and bad is nearly long gone. The Rays seem to find talent more often than not. In 2022, the Rays finished in 3rd place in the AL East, getting a wildcard spot with a record of 86-76. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks them the 12th best team with odds of +2500 to win the World Series.

Batting Lineup 

The Rays have an interesting lineup that usually gets the job done. It’s a bit weird when you really look at low on base percentage but decent slugging percentages accompanied with low homerun totals. (exception being Arozarena) This isn’t necessarily bad because these Rays can hit the ball hard. The lineup has a strong top 4 and gets some depth from last season’s trade deadline haul. My standouts will be Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. These guys represent the future of the Rays. They need to be leaders by contributing both on and off the field. I like Yandy Diaz leading off, he led the team last season in OPS with a.824. At the both of the lineup I like Jose Siri and Christian Bethancourt. I think they bring depth because both of them are a threat to hit for a homerun. Overall, the Rays consistency makes you not doubt the ability of this lineup.

Starting Rotation 

The Rays starting rotation is one of the best in baseball. It’s one of the best parts of the team until you get into the bullpen. It’s also one of the places they added a free agent in Zach Eflin. Eflin is a serviceable starter and will likely be a nice fourth or fifth starter. At the top, you have McClanhan who came in 6th in Cy Young voting in 2022. He also came in 7th for Rookie of the Year in 2021. My standout is Tyler Glasnow, who I mentioned in the introduction, comes back from injury and will be poised to have another great season. Ramussen and Springs will look to repeat their great seasons. Overall I like this rotation and expect them to keep opponents from scoring many runs if any. 

Bullpen 

In a similar vein to the starting rotation, the Rays bullpen ranks among the best in the league. They rank in the top 10 in categories that allow baserunners like WHIP. My standouts are easy to pick here: Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam. This closing duo has proven to be locked down. The Rays will need Fairbanks and Adam to continue their dominance. Like most MLB bullpens, you only need four or five guys to have great seasons to make the bullpen close out those tight 1 run games. The Rays 6 or 7 great guys back there and I expect them to be good. 

Prediction 

The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t flashy and they don’t wow in the offseason. However, the Rays tend to perform during the season and when it counts. I like their roster and the Rays have a track record of bringing in players that fit their scheme. Many teams hope to emulate this formula but fail. The problem for the Rays even with their great roster is the division in which they play. The AL East had three playoff teams last season. (NL East also had three playoff teams) The Rays were one of them and even more eye opening was the 3 game gap between them and the Baltimore Orioles. I believe the balanced schedule helps the Rays. If the pitching staff stays relatively healthy, I don’t see why this team can’t improve on its 2022 win total. The problem is Blue Jays and Yankees have significantly better pure hitting lineups. The AL east race will be tight. My prediction is a worst record of 84-74 and a best record of 90-72. The floor will be 4th place and the ceiling will be 2nd place. The Rays have potential to be better than their team looks on paper. But it’s hard to predict how well the lineup will hit and if their pitchers stay healthy.

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Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the charts and statistics! 

Pre-Season Team Profile: Minnesota Twins

Introduction

The Minnesota Twins had an interesting offseason that saw them win the Carlos Correa sweepstakes after his “Product” comments. It also saw the Twins trade one of their best hitters in Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez to bolster their starting rotation. The weakness of the Twins in recent years has been their pitching. They have addressed that in a big way. Just to be up front, trying to decide where these AL Central teams land, especially the Twins and White Sox is very hard. The Twins are just as capable as the White Sox of fighting for a possible wildcard. One of these teams might even push the Guardians. Last season, the Twins went 78-84 and finished in 3rd place. The MGM Power Ranking list ranks the Twins at 13th with a +4000 odds to win the World Series.

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Batting Lineup

The Twins batting lineup from top to bottom is solid. There aren’t a lot of weak spots or liabilities. The glaring weaknesses come from Joey Gallo and Alex Krilloff. The problem with Gallo is that he has literally one swing. When Gallo does get contact it’s a homer or a big hit. Krilloff is still young and you can hope for him to develop more. I really love the top of the lineup with Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kepler and Miranda. I also think Nick Gordon in DH at 9 provides some depth. My standouts are Buxton and Correa. These two guys need to have monster seasons. Buxton just needs to stay healthy and he will put up MVP numbers. Correa is the leader of the clubhouse and the Twins need him to produce like it. Overall I like this lineup. 

Starting Rotation 

The Twins rotation has improved with the addition of Pablo Lopez. My standout is Pablo Lopez right off the bat. Lopez is going to carry this rotation along with Gray and Ryan who both had good seasons last year. It’s hard to predict what you get from Mahle and Maeda but if they are career average or better, it’s a win. The Twins had a positive run differential with 696 runs for and 684 runs against. I would expect an improvement. The real test will be how does this compare with other teams in the AL central. 

Bullpen

The Twins bullpen didn’t see any additions this offseason. But when you look at their stats from last season you can see they have enough decent pitchers to make it work. I think the trade with Baltimore at the trade deadline for Jorge Lopez was a no-brainer. I think Duran is another legitimate closer. The Twins need some of the other guys to step if they want their bullpen to truly wow everyone. My standout is Jovani Moran who did a great job but only pitched 40 innings. If he can do around 2-3 ERA in 60-70 innings that would be huge for the Twins. I like the potential of this bullpen. 

My Prediction 

Overall, I like the Twins roster construction and obviously they could improve like nearly every team. The trouble for me lies in the comparison with their division rivals. On paper, the White Sox are more talented but haven’t necessarily proved it. The Twins starting rotation improved but is it better than the White Sox and Guardians? I don’t think so. Also don’t forget the White Sox had a down year so it’s reasonable to expect a bounce back. That being said, the Twins are not that far away from challenging the Guardians and White Sox for a division title. My prediction is a worst record of 77-85 and a best record of 87-75. I think the Twins are closer to the White Sox than to the Guardians. As such the floor is 3rd place and the ceiling is 2nd place. If you are a Twins fan, I would be optimistic they can come 2nd and challenge the Guardians. 

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Pre-Season Team Profile: Texas Rangers 

Introduction 

The Texas Rangers have had two historically good offseasons in a row. Last season they brought in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. This year they managed to reel in the best pitcher in the league with Jacob DeGrom. They also re-did their rotation with three new starters. As a Rangers fan, you have to respect the attempt to put a winning roster on the field. The Rangers last season were able to get decent hitting but failed to pitch well. They addressed the pitching in the rotation. They seem to have forgotten about the bullpen. In any case, the Rangers only managed a 4th place finish in the AL West with a 68-94 record in 2022. For 2023, the MGM Power Ranking list ranks them at 14 with a +5000 odds to win the World Series. 

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Batting Lineup 

The story of the Rangers lineup is one of two halves. Let’s start with the less good half 7-9. (Nice) At number 6, we have Josh Jung who just had a cup of coffee in the Majors and performed well. We’ll hope to see Jung continue those numbers over a full season. Taveras and Smith don’t get me excited. Brad Miller has a history of being able to hit a homerun here and there. The second half of their lineup could be better. Now switching gears to the top half 1-6. The free agent acquisitions Semien and Seager perform near expectations. I think Semien had a fall off from his 2021 MVP-like season. Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim are reasonable threats at the plate, especially Garcia. My standout is Nathaniel Lowe who put up career best numbers. I think if Lowe can repeat that plus any one of Garcia, Semien and Seager go off, the Rangers will be just fine on offense. I do wish they added more pop in the bottom of the lineup. 

Starting Rotation

How can you not love the Rangers rotation? Of course I can nitpick because you can dig up some skeletons for Evoaldi and Heaney. I saw Heaney live pitch against my Mets in 2021 and he did not look great. But he went to the Dodgers and they fixed him. I think the Rangers did a great job with their rotation. They made the right decision to keep Gray and Perez, they both had good seasons last year. As a Mets fan, I am familiar with Jacob Degrom. I was sad to see him leave. However, if DeGrom is healthy and he pitches anywhere near 30 games, you can expect 15 to 20 more wins. My standout is DeGrom. Obviously it’s very dependent on if the offense can put up the runs. The Mets always struggled to score when he pitched. If DeGrom isn’t healthy, I think the Rangers probably overpaid for DeGrom. But overall this rotation will be in the top 10. 

Bullpen 

The Rangers bullpen might be the weakest part of the team. It’s clear from the numbers that the back end was pretty good. I think the Rangers forgot to address the mid-relief guys. Not sure what you’re going to get from Duffy. Odorizzi can hit or miss but he does add starter depth. My standout for the bullpen is Taylor Hearn. If Hearn can put together a good season, I think this bullpen is capable of closing out games. Hearn, if you look at career stats, hasn’t quite put together a great season. When you look at his FIP and WHIP, it’s clear he allows too many baserunners and walks. Although to his credit, the walk rate has come down. Check out his career stats below:

My Prediction 

The Rangers are a hard team to predict. Here is what I do know: They scored 707 runs for and 743 runs allowed. With the upgrades to their rotation I think these numbers switch and get significantly further apart. The Rangers won’t be allowing more than 650 runs if DeGrom and all four starters are healthy and in top form. I am unsure if their bullpen will be enough and I like half their lineup a lot. The other issue the division their in, is to put shortly hard. They have to battle the World Series Champion Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners. Not to mention the Angels who some might say improved. Balanced schedule will help a bit. My prediction is a worst record of 74-88 and a best record of 86-76. My floor and ceiling is 3rd place. Sorry Rangers fans, I think you can beat Angels just on pitching alone but your roster just pales in comparison to the Mariners and Astros. If the Rangers add at the trade deadline or add more next offseason I can see them competing for a wildcard. 

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Pre-Season Team Profile: Baltimore Orioles

Introduction 

The Baltimore Orioles shocked a lot of critics last season by finishing 83-79 and nearly contending for a wildcard spot. The Orioles have been in a sort of rebuilding/ penny-pinching mode since they were last in the playoffs in 2015. The Orioles are still guilty of penny-pinching but at least they are starting to get competitive again. The Orioles were minorly active in free agency. They acquired a few free agents and did a few trades. I’ll be the first to tell you that I don’t know if the Orioles can replicate or improve on what they did in 2022. They traded away Trey Mancini and let Jordan Lyles walk. They do have a nice core in their lineup. The starting rotation will miss John Means who will probably miss at least half the season with Tommy John. Also I love their bullpen but more on that later. The Orioles finished in a disappointing 4th place but impressively only 3 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. The AL East was one of the tougher divisions in baseball. The MGM Power Ranking list puts the Orioles right in the middle at 15th. The Orioles odds to win the World Series sits at +6600. 

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Batting Lineup

The Orioles lineup is an interesting compilation of players. I like the lineup in number 1 through 5 hitters. I think all of the guys, especially Cedric Mullens give the Orioles a good shot to win games. All of the hitters in 1-5 provide at least some power threat. Even in the bottom of the lineup, the slugging percentages go down slightly. But more importantly so do the on base percentages. However, if a guy like Adam Frazier can bounce back this year, it gives the Orioles a nice deep lineup. My standouts will be Adam Frazier and Adley Rutschman. If you look below, you can see Frazier is capable of much better seasons than the one he had last season. If he can hit any near his career .728 OPS, the Orioles probably move him up the lineup. As for Rutschman, he seemed to be the spark last season and the Orioles will need him to spark it up again. Overall, I like the lineup but it could certainly be improved.

Starting Rotation 

The Orioles starting rotation is the weakest part of this team in my mind. I think they will very much miss John Means. But I like the additions of Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin. I think these guys are my standouts, they will need to eat quality innings til Means is able to return. The other guy to watch is Dean Kremer, who has shown potential to be a real number 2 or 3 starter in the league. It’s hard to tell what we’ll get out of Bradish and Rodriguez. If I’m the Orioles, I’m hoping either Bradish or Rodriguez shove at least until Means gets back after the All Star break. Overall, this is a weak spot on the team. 

Bullpen 

The Orioles bullpen was surprisingly great during last season. I believe they probably recreate that as most of the bullpen returns. They did make one addition in Mychal Givens who after a rocky start with the New York Mets, actually had a good season. My standout is Felix Bautista who is going to be a top closer in the game for many years to come. I think the bullpen can help with the weaker starting rotation especially if this Orioles offense produces. Another thing I noticed when looking at the Orioles whole pitching staff is high FIP numbers. The walk rates weren’t bad but it seems to me, the Orioles defense wasn’t great. Overall, the bullpen should be good if not great. 

My Prediction  

The Orioles have the potential to regress in 2023 but they didn’t lose a significant amount of talent either. They definitely gained some talent although not huge gains. I think the balanced schedule is helpful to them especially in a tough AL East. I can see every team with the exception of the Red Sox, being in the playoff hunt. It’s hard to predict because last season’s run was unexpected. My prediction is a worst record of 69-93 and a best record of 85-77. I know that my best record is a bit of preseason optimism, but I really like the young guys like Rutschman. I think if their young guys and Frazier go off with career bests and the bullpen does its thing, the Orioles get to 85 wins. I know the division is tough and I don’t know if 85 wins is enough for a playoff berth. But I wish them luck. 

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